US Daily Cash Deficit 11/26/2013

The Us Daily Cash Deficit for Tuesday 11/26/2013 was $6.0B bringing the November 2013 cash deficit through 26 days to $103B with 2 business days remaining.

11-26-2013 USDD

Revenues remain strong…gaining another $1B to hit $+21B YOY. With 2 business days left, vs 2012’s 3….it is possible we lose a little ground, but we should turn in a solid month absent a month end surprise. Looking to last year, we can probably expect ~a $10B deficit Wednesday and a $35B deficit Friday, which would get us pretty close to $150B, with Friday being the real wildcard.


No post tomorrow due to the Thanksgiving¬†holiday… Wednesday’s DTS will probably be published Friday, so I may post then, but no guarantees.

US Daily Cash Deficit 11/25/2013

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 11/25/2013 was $6.4B bringing the November 2013 cash deficit to $97B

11-25-2013 USDD

Revenues make another big jump…this time another +$4B bringing revenues to +$20B which is right about where they need to be. However, with Thanksgiving a week later than 2012, 11/2013 has one less business day remaining compared to 2012. This will hurt revenue a bit, but improve outlays….at least temporarily, because December gets an extra business day ūüôā

US Daily Cash Deficit 11/22/2013

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 11/22/2013 was $5.7B bringing the November 2013 cash deficit with 4 business days remaining to $104B.

11-22-2013 USDD

At this point, revenues are up 11% and outlays are down 2%…leading to our $20B YOY improvement. Withheld tax deposits are up 8%, corporate taxes are down 19% (from a small base) and excise taxes are flat. Making up the rest of the gains are mostly the $6B TARP payment we discussed a few days back.

Looking ahead, Wednesday brings the final round of SS payments and Thursday is Thanksgiving. Friday is the last business day of the month, and it should bring a large deficit of $30B+, but we won’t know for sure until 12/2 when the¬†11/29 DTS is released.. We appear to be on track¬†to end the month somewhere between $140B and $160B.

US Daily Cash Deficit 11/21/2013

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 11/21/2013 was $4.6B bringing the November Deficit through 21 days to $98B with 5 business days remaining. Since the corresponding Thursday in 2012 (11/22/2012)¬†was Thanksgiving….there was no activity…so 2013 shows gains in revenues and outlays throwing the timing off a bit, but it will catch back up next week by month end.

11-21-2013 USDD

Nothing else to really note other than that¬†November 2013¬†continues to look like it will overperform my initial expectations of a $160B deficit with 5 business days to go…though 11/29 will be a wild one, so how it all ends is still up in the air. Right now, I’d say $135B-$155B looks most likely, but stay tuned.


US Daily Cash Deficit 11/20/2013

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 11/20/2013 was $1.2B as strong SS outlays were offset by a surprise (to me) cash infusion from TARP in the amount of $6.1B. TARP assets still on the books as of the beginning of the month were about $22B and are being slowly liquidated (for cash)¬†at a rate of about $2B per month lately…which is what my estimate was. So….I’ll go back to the drawing board…this will result in $6B of revenues I clearly was not anticipating, which will reduce the current period cash deficit accordingly. However…in the big scheme of things, all this does is pull forward “revenue” that I had expected in future months….so it basically nets to zero.

11-20-2013 USDD

Still…thanks to that $6B, we got pretty close to posting a surplus on a day we typically would expect have a $5-10B deficit….so clearly more good news. While this is not a sustainable source of revenues (the $14B remaining balance will be exhausted before too long), we are now at +14B and +10% on revenues YOY with six business days remaining. If we stay on trend (anything but certain) it would appear that we could end the month with a deficit under $150B vs the $160B I had initially predicted, but you never really know until the books are closed.