The US Daily Cash Deficit for 11/19/2013 was $5.6B bringing the November 2013 cash deficit through 19 days to $92B with 7 business days remaining. Revenues take a small step back after a blowout yesterday, but remain at +$8.3B for the month, so +1.5B per day over the rest of the month would get us to where we want to be. Tomorrow’s report will show us round 3 of SS payments…another $12B slug, which should lead to a $5-10B deficit.
The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 11/18/2013 was $11.6B on extremely strong revenues and weak outlays bringing the November 2013 deficit through 18 days down to $86B with 8 business days remaining.
And just like that…what looked just yesterday like a disappointing month for revenues is back in the mix posting $19B of revenue for the day compared to $11B for the comparable 2013 day (Monday 11/19/2012) good for a +$8B gain on the day. I honestly can’t explain this one…it’s all from withheld taxes….a series that generally doesn’t display a lot of volatility. Whatever the reason…we’ll take it. Revenues are now sitting at +8.5% YOY…in line with what we have come to expect and poised to possibly exceed expectations depending on how strong the rest of the month is.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 11/15/2013 was $29.6B driven up mainly by the large scheduled interest payments of $31B that went out. This brings the November 2013 cash deficit at the halfway point at $98B…$11B under the YOY, but still within reach of my $160B forecast. Generally…I am expecting moderate deficits and surpluses over the rest of the month netting to ~$25B, ending with a bang on 11/30 with a $35B+ deficit possible.
After a strong start….revenues have fizzled a bit over the last few days and are now standing at only +$2B, a 2% YOY gain. We’ve come to expect +10% thanks to the tax hikes at the beginning of the year, so definitely anything under 5% would be a disappointment. Don’t panic yet though…for some reason, we’ve been having strong second half of the month revenues compared to last year, so another strong kick over the next 2 weeks could get us to the +20B we’ve come to expect.
Outlays are at -$9B YOY, with little movement over the past few days, but has slipped to -4% from -7% a few days ago. I’d expect this to continue to shrink over the rest of the month, ending at -1-2%.
The US Daily Cash deficit for Thursday 11/14/2014 was $0.5B leaving the November 2013 cash deficit through 14 days virtually unchanged at $68B.
For the second day in a row revenues pull back a bit and are now only $2B ahead of 2013. We do still have a bit of timing, but that doesn’t explain away all of it. We did receive the $2B of excise taxes discussed yesterday, but it was replaced by a ~3B corporate income tax timing issue that should resolve with the next report. Most of the miss was actually in withheld tax deposits….perhaps another timing issue I am simply not aware of?? Let’s hope so. As it stands, revenues are up ~3% YOY, but we’ve seen a string of months that started weak but finished strong, so there is no reason at this point to think that +10% is out of reach by month end, but we will certainly be watching it.
Outlays have a big timing issue…with prior years already showing the mid month ~$30B interest payments that won’t show up in 2013 until Monday’s 11/15 report…bringing everything back into alignment for the most part.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 11/13/2013 was $16.0B pushing the November 2013 deficit through 13 days to $68B primarily due to~ $12B of SS payments that went out.
Revenues actually took a small step back…losing about $2B of ground against 11/2012…I suspect most of this is timing of excise tax deposits…in which case we will catch back up over the next couple of days.