Monthly Archives: November 2013

US Daily Cash Deficit 11/19/2013

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 11/19/2013 was $5.6B bringing the November 2013 cash deficit through 19 days to $92B with 7 business days remaining. 11-19-2013 USDD Revenues take a small step back after a blowout yesterday, but remain at +$8.3B for the month, so +1.5B per day over the rest of the month would get us to where we want to be. Tomorrow’s report will show us round 3 of SS payments…another $12B slug, which should lead to a $5-10B deficit.

US Daily Cash Deficit 11/18/2013

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 11/18/2013 was $11.6B on extremely strong revenues and weak outlays bringing the November 2013 deficit through 18 days down to $86B with 8 business days remaining.

11-16-2013 USDD

And just like that…what looked just yesterday like a disappointing month for revenues is back in the mix posting $19B of revenue for the day compared to $11B for the comparable 2013 day (Monday 11/19/2012) good for a +$8B gain on the day. I honestly can’t explain this one…it’s all from withheld taxes….a series that generally doesn’t display a lot of volatility. Whatever the reason…we’ll take it. Revenues are now sitting at +8.5% YOY…in line with what we have come to expect and poised to possibly exceed expectations depending on how strong the rest of the month is.

 

US Daily Cash Deficit 11/15/2013

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 11/15/2013 was $29.6B driven up mainly by the large scheduled interest payments of $31B that went out. This brings the November 2013 cash deficit at the halfway point at $98B…$11B under the YOY, but still within reach of my $160B forecast. Generally…I am expecting moderate deficits and surpluses over the rest of the month netting to ~$25B, ending with a bang on 11/30 with a $35B+ deficit possible.

11-15-2013 USDD

After a strong start….revenues have fizzled a bit over the last few days and are now standing at only +$2B, a 2% YOY gain. We’ve come to expect +10% thanks to the tax hikes at the beginning of the year, so definitely anything under 5% would be a disappointment. Don’t panic yet though…for some reason, we’ve been having strong second half of the month revenues compared to last year, so another strong kick over the next 2 weeks could get us to the +20B we’ve come to expect.

Outlays are at -$9B YOY, with little movement over the past few days, but has slipped to -4% from -7% a few days ago. I’d expect this to continue to shrink over the rest of the month, ending at -1-2%.

US Daily Cash Deficit 11/14/2013

The US Daily Cash deficit for Thursday 11/14/2014 was $0.5B leaving the November 2013 cash deficit through 14 days virtually unchanged at $68B.

11-14-2013 USDD

For the second day in a row revenues pull back a bit and are now only $2B ahead of 2013. We do still have a bit of timing, but that doesn’t explain away all of it. We did receive the $2B of excise taxes discussed yesterday, but it was replaced by a ~3B corporate income tax timing issue that should resolve with the next report. Most of the miss was actually in withheld tax deposits….perhaps another timing issue I am simply not aware of?? Let’s hope so. As it stands, revenues are up ~3% YOY, but we’ve seen a string of months that started weak but finished strong, so there is no reason at this point to think that +10% is out of reach by month end, but we will certainly be watching it.

Outlays have a big timing issue…with prior years already showing the mid month ~$30B interest payments that won’t show up in 2013 until Monday’s 11/15 report…bringing everything back into alignment for the most part.

 

US Daily Cash Deficit 11/13/2013

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 11/13/2013 was $16.0B pushing the November 2013 deficit through 13 days  to $68B primarily due to~ $12B of SS payments that went out.

11-13-2013 USDD

Revenues actually took a small step back…losing about $2B of ground against 11/2012…I suspect most of this is timing of excise tax deposits…in which case we will catch back up over the next couple of days.