The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 6/6/2014 was $3.0B bringing the June 2014 Deficit through 6 days to $24B.
Through our first week of June, Revenues are up 2%, outlays are up 5%. The outlays spike seems to be driven primarily by May interest payments that slipped into June…pull them out and we’re pretty much even.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 6/5/2014 was $4.0B bringing the June deficit through 5 days to $21B.
Once again…we see the YOY 2013 vs 2014 very close resulting in minimal changes….how boring 🙂
First a look back at May, where I initially forecasted a $133B deficit…$11B short of the actual at $144B….So not great, but not anywhere near my $55B miss in April.
June is typically a strong revenue month as quarterly corporate and personal income taxes start flooding in after the 15th of the month. Because of this, there can be quite a bit of volatility. Last June posted a whopping $116B surplus on strong revenues, and a $60B payday loan from Fannie Mae. We won’t get another Fannie Mae bump this year, but it should still be a good month…I am predicting an $85B surplus for June 2014. Excluding Fannie Mae…revenues should be up on an extra business day, favorable timing, and moderate underlying growth. Outlays will also be up a bit for the same reasons.
The US Daily Cash Surplus for Wednesday 6/4/2014 was $5.5B dropping the deficit through 4 days to $17B.
Wednesday 6/4/2014 essentially looks like a carbon copy of Wednesday 6/5/2013…so no real change worth talking about. Through 3 business days, revenues are up 4.7% and outlays are up 7.1%, good for a $2B YOY increase in the deficit. I don’t really expect these % to hold up…there’s a lot of month left, and the outcome will largely be determined by the large corporate and taxes not withheld cash flows expected in the second half of the month.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Tuesday 6/3/2014 was $29.5B bringing the June 2014 deficit to $22B through 3 days.
The first round of SS payments went out as expected totaling $24B and bringing 2013 and 2014 back into sync. Surprisingly…outlays appear to be running hot at +$4B, while Revenues maintain their early $2B lead….resulting in a deficit $2B over last year. Honestly, it’s way too early in the month to even be looking, but with the YOY naturally syncing up so nicely this month…why not??