June 2014 Cash Deficit Forecast

First a look back at May, where I initially forecasted a $133B deficit…$11B short of the actual at $144B….So not great, but not anywhere near my $55B miss in April.

June is typically a strong revenue month as quarterly corporate and personal income taxes start flooding in after the 15th of the month. Because of this, there can be quite a bit of volatility. Last June posted a whopping $116B surplus on strong revenues, and a $60B payday loan from Fannie Mae. We won’t get another Fannie Mae bump this year, but it should still┬ábe a good month…I am predicting an $85B surplus for June 2014. Excluding Fannie Mae…revenues should be up on an extra business day, favorable timing, and moderate underlying growth. Outlays will also be up a bit for the same reasons.