US DAILY DEFICIT

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Tuesday 6/24/2014 was $3.0B bringing the June 2014 Surplus through 24 days to $74B.

Revenues up a bit, outlays down a bit, adding up to a $1B gain for 2014 over 2013. There are only 4 business days remaining in the month, but still some uncertainty about exactly where the surplus will end up. I am expecting$10-15B of deficit over the next 3 days, offset by a sizable surplus Monday….I just don’t know how big…it will likely be between $15-$25B. So…I guess $somewhere between a $70B surplus and a $90B surplus….let’s just call it $80B, compared to last June’s $116B surplus.

Still…some solid revenue numbers have been put up so far. Withheld taxes are up by 5.5%, Corporate taxes are up 8.5%, and taxes not withheld are up 12.6%, and all will get a bump Monday from the extra business day, putting +10% within reach for all…though overall revenues will be down due to Fannie Mae’s June 2013 accounting gain distribution. Then…it’s on to July….where maybe we’ll find out whether the anomaly was April/May at 1% revenue growth…..or June at ~10%…. Or maybe July will just split the difference and leave me confused for a few more quarters.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 6/23/2014 was $15.9B bringing the June 2014 surplus through 23 days to 77B with five business days remaining.

Another good day for revenues gaining another $2B while outlays fall $1B YOY fo a$3B overall improvement. This is likely our last day of large taxes “not withheld” with $8.8 vs $7.9B a year ago. They will likely fall to a trickle by the end of the week.

Looking at the whole month…revenues stand at +6%…outlays at +5%. We’ll have to wait until month end to be certain, but it is looking like aside from the $6B of interest that was pushed from May into June…Medicaid and Medicare are going to be a big part of the increase in outlays. Medicaid at $21.3B has already surpassed last June’s full month at $21.1B and there are still 5 full days left, with a ~1B daily run rate, topping $25B looks likely, which would be an 18% YOY gain. Medicare also looks a little hot, running a few $B over last year

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 6/20/2014 was $0.0B….actually $38M, leaving the Surplus for the month virtually unchanged at $61B. Revenues were up about $1B….that’s good. Outlays were up about $2B…not so good.

Posting may be light this week, but I’ll try to get them out if I have time. So far, it looks like the theme of the month is…Revenues not quite as devastating as feared….outlays are curiously strong. Netted together…not much change.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 6/19/2014 was $2.3B bringing the June 2014 surplus through 19 days to $61B.

Revenues take a small $1B step back and outlays continue creeping up at +$0.7B. The last major unknown for the month is the GSE (Fannie/Freddie) dividends which are paid quarterly. Of course last June…those added up to $66B…including $50B of special dividends. We won’t see a number that high, but last quarter still had $17B…which is probably a decent estimate, but I have seen a few reports indicating it may be $3-4B lower than last quarter…I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 6/18/2014 was $0.6B, leaving the June 2014 Surplus at $64B through 18 days.

Revenues continue to be solid…up another $2B while outlays were up $1.5B. Revenues are currently at +6%, so with the extra business day, we are certainly within striking distance of +10% if we exclude last year’s Fannie Mae payments. This is a good turn of events…especially if it rolls into July.