The US Daily Cash Surplus for Thursday 4/16/2015 was $12.7B bringing the April 2015 Surplus through 16 days to $28B.
We likely still have some timing issues, but another day of flat revenues, leaving me a tad bit more concerned than I was yesterday,about the risk of disappointing revenues. My forecast optimistically assumed 8% growth (+$34B), yet here we are at the midpoint down 1%, meaning we need to hit about 17% YOY gains the rest of the way out. The catch up day at the end of the month makes that a little less daunting, but we definitely need to see some growth soon. Next Tuesday should be a big day for revenue, so we should have a pretty good idea by my Wednesday report if this is just timing, or if my 8% revenue growth was simply a swing and a miss.
No surprises here….driven by $33B of corporate taxes and $23B of individual income taxes, Wednesday 4/15/2015 posted a $46.8B surplus, pushing April 2015 to a $16B surplus through 15 days.
Now, for starters, we are not completely in sync, as is practice around here, we are synced on day of the week comparing 2015 through Wednesday 4/15 to 2014 through Wednesday 4/16/2014. So 2014 has an extra day, and given the huge taxes flowing in Mid April….this gives it a big advantage…likely at least $20B. Because of this timing issue, our chart shows revenues more or less flat at -$2B. Don’t panic yet….there is a lot of month left, and these timing issues should start washing out by the end of next week. There is still a lot of uncertainty, but if I had to guess I’d say we are still on track for 5%-8% growth…. however…. there are some areas for concern to watch out for.
First off, corporate tax deposits are more or less done for the month, and are tied up with last year at $42B. Corporate Taxes are only ~10% of total expected revenues for the month, but it’s going to make it that much harder to post a good growth %. Second, unwithheld tax deposits look a little light so far, but it could just be timing. They came in at $7B 4/15, and will likely build up to next Tuesday at $40B+, before sliding back under $1B by the end of the month. This is a crucial category…last April it brought in $192B of revenue, 45% of the total. If we have a miss here, the month it going to look pretty crappy. On the other hand, withheld taxes are looking good, and tax refunds are down, but it’s really going to come down to unwithheld taxes over the next 5-6 days. As always…stay tuned.
The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 4/13/2015 was $13.4B bringing the April 2015 deficit through 13 days to $53B.
2015 Revenues appear to be taking a step back, but I would guess it’s likely timing with 2014 being one day closer to tax day (Monday 4/14/2014) than 2015. Tomorrow it will get a lot worse, and honestly it may be close to the end of the month before the dust settles enough we get a good read on the YOY. That won’t stop me from trying, but you’ve been warned. For now, 13 days into April, we don’t see anything out of the ordinary. Pulling out timing, I’d put revenue at ~+5% and outlays up a few percent…but all that could change in a day. Last year, 4/15 alone pulled in $77B of revenue, so a hit or miss here could make or break the month….
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 4/8/2015 was $11.3B bringing the April 2015 deficit through 8 days to $65B.
2015 and 2014 are still roughly aligned…nothing so far to suggest a revenue surprise is on the way in either direction.
I have barely heard a peep on the debt limit issue over the last few weeks, but thought it was worth noting that through 24 days of “Extrordinary Measures” (EM), the apparent value of the “missing” debt is about $51B. I don’t know exactly how much cash they can generate in this fashion, but I’d guess ~350B total. The current cash balance is $44B, so add to that another $300B of EM, and $200B for the surplus we are likely to run over the remainder of the month, and we have nearly a $550B cushion remaining before Uncle Sam for real runs out of cash. Assuming current run rates….I think that gets us to next February…which is probably when this will get resolved .
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 4/3/2015 was $23.1B bringing the April 2015 deficit to $57B through 3 days.
No surprises yet…Most months start off with a pretty big deficit since a lot of outlays go out between the 1st and 3rd, including the first round of Social Security on the 3rd at about $24B and a ~$20B Medicaid payment that typically goes out on the 1st. As it standard practice, I am synchronizing 2015 and 2014 on days of the week, so our charts are comparing 4 days of April 2014(Tuesday 4/1/2014-Friday 4/4/2014) to 3 days of 2015 (Wednesday 4/1-Friday 4/3). This won’t help us as much as it usually does, as it is calendar 4/15 that triggers corporate and unwithheld taxes, but we’ll stick with it anyways because it should keep SS payments and withheld taxes more or less in sync. 2015 will get the extra day back at the end of the month… Thursday 4/30.
Despite the difference in days, revenues are all tied up and outlays are down just $4B. The deficit should trend up a bit over the next week, then on 4/15, a flood of revenues should start flowing in pushing us to Surplus by the end of next week, and somewhere between $100B-$200B by the end of the month. My guess is officially $155B surplus, but it all depends on revenues.