The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 12/29/2014 was $14.7B bringing the December 2014 Surplus through 29 days to $17B with just two days remaining.
Revenues are more or less back in sync after being disrupted by the holiday timing. They sit at +10%, or $29B, which should be enough to hold onto 2014’s lead over 2013 even as 12/31 Fannie/Freddie payments fall way short of last year. The last two days of the year look to be quite volatile, so I hesitate to guess, but that is what you guys pay me for, so my feeling is that my initial forecast of a $35B surplus is going to be a bit optimistic. Anything is always possible, but tacking on another $18B of surplus in the next two days seems like a bit of a stretch. I’d guess we actually stay fairly close to where we are as elevated revenues should be offset by increased outlays….so maybe only a $10-$20B surplus for the month when all is said and done.
Of course that puts the annual cash deficit at right about $600B for the year, which makes the math easy….
perhaps a $130B YOY improvement (**1/2/2015 edit…math fail…please ignore this…should have used 2013 Final at $709B…not FY 2013 through 364 days) vs 2013….down quite a bit from 2013’s nearly $400B improvement on tax increases and the corporate raid of Fannie/Freddie… Still, improvement is improvement…we’ll take it.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 12/24/2014 was $5.2B bringing the December 2014 Surplus through 24 days to $2B with 4 business days remaining.
Revenues continue to impress and while they are distorted a bit by the timing of the holiday…as of 12/24 sit at +20% vs 2013 with 4 business days remaining in both 2013 and 2014. This will likely come down a bit by the end of the month due to reduced YOY Fannie/Freddie payments, but an impressive revenue month is still pretty much a done deal. Of course….outlays are up primarily due to timing at +24%. The YTD charts paints a bit different picture…revenues up 6.4%, outlays up 1.6%. Lets do it again in 2015… shall we??
I haven’t done a bottoms up forecast for 2015, but my preliminary thoughts are that outlays will continue trending up, probably breaking through +2% YOY. Revenue is highly unpredictable, but I would imagine strong growth to continue at least through the April tax season….after that 5% or so seems like a safe bet for now.
The US Daily Surplus for 12/16/2014 was $7.1B bringing the December 2014 surplus to $11B through 16 days.
Revenues continued to pour in…this time withheld tax deposits….as if in response to my note yesterday that they were looking low…. gained $8B…I suppose some timing quirk I am unaware of, bringing them to $+4B for the month. Total revenues are up $25B YOY, good for a 13% improvement, mostly due to corporate taxes which are up 35%. Outlays were off $1B and stand at $+43B YOY for the month. Altogether…it’s looking like a better month than expected on strong revenues.
In all the excitement of yesterdays flood of corporate taxes…I forgot to mention a milestone:
Can you spot it?
Debt outstanding passed $18 Trillion yesterday **(WHOOPS!! looks like this actually happened 11/28 while I was taking a nap 🙁 )…..yawn…. For the record….Total Public debt is up $767B in the last 12 months….Debt held by the public is up $637B. Of course…if you look at the Monthly Treasury Statement through November….the Trailing 12 month deficit is only $436B. One word…shady…..just sayin’ 🙂
The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 12/15/2014 was $70b, wiping out the December deficit and bringing us to a $4B surplus at the midpoint.
It’s no surprise that revenues came flooding in, but corporate taxes are even better than expected. I had been thinking $+10B would be good, we are currently at $+$20B through 15 days as 2014 has $78B of corporate tax deposits vs $58B in 2013. Offsetting the upside in corporate taxes…withheld taxes are down 4% ($4B) which is curious but not worrying…yet. Altogether, revenues are now up $15B.
No real movemnet in outlays…now sitting at $+44B YOY….up another $1B over the last report.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 12/11/2014 was $2.6B bringing the December 2014 deficit through 11 days to $85B.
Revenues are sitting at $+3B YOY, up $1B from my last snapshot, though there are some hints that the incoming corporate taxes due 12/15 may be a good haul based on early (and immaterial) inflows. Outlays have gained $4B and now sit at +$43B YOY. My next update will likely be Tuesday, when we should have a pretty good idea of how corporate taxes came in…..$60B would be a middle of the road estimate. Add that to what is likely to be strong witheld taxes and we should come close to turning the current $85B deficit into a surplus over the next week or so.