The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 12/24/2014 was $5.2B bringing the December 2014 Surplus through 24 days to $2B with 4 business days remaining.
Revenues continue to impress and while they are distorted a bit by the timing of the holiday…as of 12/24 sit at +20% vs 2013 with 4 business days remaining in both 2013 and 2014. This will likely come down a bit by the end of the month due to reduced YOY Fannie/Freddie payments, but an impressive revenue month is still pretty much a done deal. Of course….outlays are up primarily due to timing at +24%. The YTD charts paints a bit different picture…revenues up 6.4%, outlays up 1.6%. Lets do it again in 2015… shall we??
I haven’t done a bottoms up forecast for 2015, but my preliminary thoughts are that outlays will continue trending up, probably breaking through +2% YOY. Revenue is highly unpredictable, but I would imagine strong growth to continue at least through the April tax season….after that 5% or so seems like a safe bet for now.