4/8/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

The US Daily Cash Surplus for 4/8/203 was $5.8B bringing the deficit through 8 days to $60B.

2013-04-08 USDD

Just a note related to the charts…for this month only…I am including for prior years the current date+1. For example, the above has through 4/8 for 2013, but through 4/9 for the other years. I am doing this to essentially sync up 2013 and 2012 and partially eliminate the timing we typically see throughout the month. This month…it is easy…the first business day of 4/2012 was Monday 4/2…the first business day of 4/2013 was Monday 4/1. So, by including 4/9/2012, I get  not only to compare 6 business days vs 6 business days… but the same business days. Doing this if one month started on a Thursday, and the other on a Monday wouldn’t really accomplish much…but in this case I think it does. I haven’t even looked at how it affects 2010/2011, but honestly I am mostly looking at 2012/2013 anyway….So be warned…I will be presenting like this for the rest of the month.
Looking at the charts…I see two months pretty much in sync…less the much discussed cost timing issue. Still no breakout in total net revenue, but there was a slight increase in tax deposits…now looking at +5.6% YOY, being offset by refunds and a decrease in “other”. Not time to panic yet, about not seeing 10% YOY increases…give that at least a few more weeks.

4/5/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

The US daily Cash Deficit for 4/5/2013 was $1.7B bringing the total April Deficit through a week to $66B.

2013-04-05 USDD

Today’s charts give us a glance at 2013/2012 that is more or less aligned…each has 5 business days, and a full Monday-Friday sequence (I included 4/6/2012). Notice anything? Yep…revenues are down. It’s just one week,  and there is plenty of action left, but it’s not what I had expected….which was for 2013 revenues to be over 2012 by $5-7B by now. Instead, tax deposits withheld are only up 2% while total net revenue is actually down. It may be nothing…just a timing quirk, but I will definitely keep an eye on it. If 4/15 goes big one way or another, we may not even notice, but it will be interesting if revenues are still down (or even) through this Friday 4/12. Cost is where expected, and the deficit still has a $33B hole to dig out of….stay tuned.

Obama: “Deficits are Shrinking”

I read with great interest Obama: ‘The Truth Is, Our Deficits Are Already Shrinking’. One of the main reasons I do this is to provide some proper accounting for the historical record. So…He is right. The deficit is shrinking…no doubt about it, but it’s not exactly something new.

2013-04-06 2009-2012 deficit

After topping out in 2009, we have seen slow but steady improvement down $500B to $1.096T in 2012 from $1.596T in 2009. And 2013, helped by the elimination of the payroll tax cut, and maybe to a small degree the tax hikes on the wealthy, is likely to continue this positive trend.

2013-04-06 2013 deficit through 94 days

Through  April 4th…94 days into 2013, the deficit, at $419B is $49B under where it was last year through 94 days. So does anyone see the problem here?… Maybe that we are working on our 5th consecutive $1T+ deficit, and our debt will soon blow through $17T…on it’s way to $20T and beyond. So, let’s use a football analogy. If in Year 1, your team loses 70-0…that’s pretty bad, kind of like our 2009 deficit. The next year, if you only lose 63-0, sure, maybe it’s an improvement, but you still got stomped. So here we are…5 years later. Maybe we lose 42-0, maybe we lose 35-0…does it really matter? Now fortunately, football seasons are not cumulative….everybody starts 0-0, no matter how bad they were last year. Deficits aren’t like that…and our $17T debt is one heck of a testament to that.
Now…. the economists and the politicians, as I’ve discussed before, are atrocious accountants. They will spout all kinds of ridiculous justifications about pointless ratios like debt to GDP, and rave about how low interest rates are….so it is ok to take on debt now… Don’t you believe any of them. Where we are now is like a household with 50k of income closing in on $300k of credit card debt. There is nothing to show(or secure) for this debt…no cars, no house (no dams, bridges to nowhere, or fleets of electric cars.) Just mountains of unsecured debt on a 0% special….expiring sometime soon. The answer for our household is obvious…declare bankruptcy, and those foolish enough to lend them the 300k in the first place, get to suffer the consequences for their foolish decisions. The US story will end the same. We are simply too far gone and our political system too broken. The game is already over, we just haven’t admitted it yet.
So, while President Obama is right…the debt  deficit has been coming down, we are still losing 35-0. Worse, while we are likely to have another year or two of improvement, with 10k boomers retiring every single day, the exponential growth of Social Security, Medicare, and the other entitlement programs will soon overwhealm the entire budget. In CBO vs CBO I forecasted that by 2022, the annual deficit will have grown to $1.788T. Our Debt….external only will have doubled to $24T…not including our Intragovernmental Debt… The only good thing about a Trillion dollar deficit, is that at least it’s not 2 Trillion.

4/3/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 4/3/2013 was $23.2B, bringing the April 2013 total through 3 days to $59B. With the first round of SS payments out of the way, things should settle down until 4/15, when revenue should start pouring in…stay tuned.

2013-04-03 USDD