US Daily Cash Deficit 8/29/2013

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 8/29/2013 was $3.6B bringing the August 2013 Cash Deficit to $136B with one business day remaining.  Revenues finally surpassed the pace set by last year by $1B, and another $10B or so on 8/30 would put us at YOY growth of a meager 1%. For reference, the first 6 months of 2013 ran at +18%, and July came in at +9%.

Interesting…. though I am inclined to average them together….at 5% revenue growth. This, to me, seems like what may emerge as the new normal…not the 11-12% the CBO has forecast for the next couple of years. With a $3T annual revenue baseline, the difference between 5% and 11% growth is about $200B in 2014 and $400B in 2015….and it grows exponentially from there.

08-29-2013 USDD

With one day remaining….expect a $30-40B deficit tomorrow (well…8/30) substantial, but less than the $64B deficit posted on Friday 8/31/2012, since that day included ~$25B of SS payments due 9/3, but pulled forward due to Labor Day.

Outlays are worth noting today since come tomorrow they will be thrown out of sync….are down $10B. Just scanning through the categories…Defense vendor payments are down $6B and Education Dept outlays are down $3B, with other categories having smaller variances up and down. $10B is a 3% reduction YOY….not too shabby given the offsetting increases in Social Security…but unfortunately, I don’t see this trend lasting beyond the fiscal year end. That said…I didn’t think sequestration would stand, and I was wrong (though pleasantly surprised) on that.