The US Daily Cash Deficit for 3/20/2013 was $6.3B bringing the March 2013 deficit to $80B through 21 days. Per my math…tax deposits are sitting right at 10% over year ago numbers….we’ll see if that sticks.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for 3/20/2013 was $13.4B driven by the third round of Social Security payments and $6B of tax refunds.. Through 20 days, the March 2013 deficit stands at $74B..$15B worse than March 2012 at this point, though about half of that is likely some Social Security timing. More or less, the two months are quite similar, with outlays fairly flat, and revenue gains related to tax hikes being offset be revenue losses elsewhere and higher tax refunds…which we account for (correctly) as negative revenue. With seven business days left, I don’t expect any large surprises… 3/2013 looks to be on track for a deficit in the ballpark of last years $139B…less $15-$30B of outlay timing that will likely go out 4/1 instead of 3/30 like in 2012 due to the way the weekend falls.
It’s a bit early to begin dreaming about April, but let’s take a quick glance anyway. April is usually the shining star of the year, aided by everybody’s favorite holiday…Tax Day!! All of those poor fools who decided not to give Uncle Sam an interest free loan by over witholding trudge down to the post office, lick a crusty 5 year old forever stamp, and grudgingly drop a big, hopefully not hot, check in the mail for good old Uncle Sam. Because of this, April sees about $130B of additional revenue, and is generally the “least worst” month of the year. Last April posted a Surplus of $59B, breaking a 43 month streak of deficits going back to 2008. That sounds like a good initial estimate….Assuming revenues continue to outpace 2012 by ~10%, this will likely be more or less offset by increased outlays related to the same March timing issues discussed above. The wildcard is going to be that $15B Medicaid payment, and the potential for even larger than 10% increases in revenue. I don’t know how this will play out, but there were reports that perhaps $100+B of income was shifted into 2012 primarily by corporations and high net worth individuals. (anybody remember all those “special” dividends”?) 4/15 would be the last chance to pay those for individuals…so maybe we’ll see a 15-20B pop?? I wouldn’t count on it, but it’s just another wildcard out there.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for 3/19/2013 was $7.8B, bringing the monthly total to $61B, vs. year ago deficit of $50B
I think it is worth noting that tax deposits are up $16B over last year…an 11% improvement, which is in line with January…February only posted 4% growth. If I see this continuing past tax season and into May/June, we can probably say that yes, we have a bonafide 10% or so increase in tax revenues….for one year. The problem with the CBO report is that it forecasts that growth again for 2014 and then 12% for 2015. Taxes were raised once…so a jump from 2012 to 2013 was expected….but it creates a new baseline….Any revenue growth from 2013 to 2014 and beyond then needs to come from bonafide growth…all else equal. This isn’t completely unprecedented…5/2005 to 4/2007 was 24 months in a row of 10% yoy growth in FTD’s, but I think we all remember how that ended. Who knows what the future holds, but to me, this sure doesn’t feel like 2005.
[Update] Just for some reference…the number of people employed grew at 1.1% over the last 12 months. Assuming that stays relatively constant…the only way we get to 11% growth again next year is that we all pay another 10% on top of what we did this year….Go get ’em!!
The US Daily Cash Surplus for 3/15/2013 was $17.7B, driven, as expected by $21.5B in corporate tax revenues. It wasn’t exactly a blowout, but for the month Corporate Tax deposits are running $2B over last year. If we compare fiscal year to fiscal year through 5.5 months, there is an 11% improvement…but, this is only $12B, so the magnitude isn’t really enough to move the needle much, and the rate of growth seems to be slowing….more on that another day.
Looking at the charts, we can see that net revenues are still down and outlays are flat, for a $14B higher deficit than last year through 15 days. With corporate taxes behind us, absent some big surprises, it is looking more likely that the March 2013 deficit will come in under last year’s $139B due to month end timing of outlays. 3/30/2012 had about $45B in outlays ($10B is a typical uneventful day). ~$15B I am certain will not go out until 4/1 this year…Another $16B is Medicare outlays…I don’t know where that one will end up, so that’s $16B of uncertainty right from the beginning…I’ll just say that anywhere between $115B and $139B is looking likely, though timing of some large outlays could easily swing it either way.
The US Cash Deficit for 3/14/2013 was $1.3B bringing the March Deficit through 14 days to $88B.
