Analysis of the Deficit, Fiscal Cliff, and US Debt
Daily US Deficit For 2/19/2013
The US Daily Surplus for 2/19/2012 was $10.1B on strong revenues, which we usually see on the Tuesday after a holiday as they report all of the weekend receipts, plus Monday and Tuesday all in one day. Refunds were down, at $4.2B about half of the refunds issued 2/15/2013. The February deficit through 19 days is $154B compared to $185 for 2012. At $31B under, for the first time in a while we see some improvement over 2012 not completely attributable to timing, though about $20B is likely timing related to social security and refunds. With 7 business days left, if 2013 is going to top 2012, we will have to average about $14B per day. I don’t see that happening without a large uptick in the pace of refunds, so stay tuned.