Analysis of the Deficit, Fiscal Cliff, and US Debt
4/24/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit
The US Daily Cash Deficit for 4/24/2013 was $2.7B, breaking a nearly 2 week string of surpluses as the final round of SS payments went out, pushing cost over still strong revenues. At $350B in net cash revenues, we are already ahead of last April’s $330B and well within reach of $400B. This wouldn’t be an all time high…April 2008 would still hold that at $430B of revenue and a $188B surplus. Curiously, 5/2008 went on to post a $154B deficit, nearly wiping out all of the gains from April’s record surplus. Doh!!
With 4 business days remaining, $105B looks like a good deficit estimate…factoring in 1 extra business day and a continuation if strong revenues. As fun as April has been…I still think the real story is going to be told in what happens over the May-June period. These months will give us our first glance at the new 2013 tax policy, uncorrupted by year end shenanigans by businesses and individuals. 11%YOY Revenue growth should be the baseline with slightly lower cost.