September 2014

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 9/29/2014 was $12.2B bringing the September 2014 surplus through 29 days to $56B.

At first glance, 2014 appears to have lost a lot of ground, but remember, I adjust based on days of week in an attempt to synchronize 2013 vs 2014 YOY. Last year, Monday 9/30/2014 was the last day of the month….and benefited from a lot of quarter end activity. September 2014 has an extra business day, and ends on a Tuesday…..So tomorrow, 2014 will add both revenues and cost, while 2013 will remain as is…with a $59B surplus. All eyes are really on revenue….we need about $26B to get to +10%….which does not seem unreasonable…..we’ll find out tomorrow.

The US Daily cash deficit for Friday 9/26/2014 was $2.6B bringing the September 2014 surplus to $44B with 2 business days remaining in the month.

Using last year as a guide…we are probably looking at a ~$70B surplus…..last September came in at $59B…

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 9/25/2014 was $8.9B following Wednesday’s $11.4B deficit bringing the September 2014 surplus to $47B with three business days left in the month.

After dropping off for a few days, Medicaid is back on the map with $3.8B of payments for the day vs ~$1B normal burn rate. That puts them 18% over last September with 3 business days left to pad their stats. Revenues overall are still sitting at 10% with the only material event left on the calender being GSE dividends. It’s looking to be a pretty good month….with revenue gains more than compensating for Medicaid….now if we could just string another 60 or so of these together…

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Tuesday 9/23/2014 was $3.8B following Monday’s $17.1B surplus, pushing the September 2014 Surplus through 23 days to $67B.

Taxes not withheld continue to flow in and have picked up the pace a bit over last year bringing the YOY to +12% good for a $7B pickup so far. Total revenues sit at +11%, a $31B gain and counting. We have 5 business days remaining with the most interesting date being next Tuesday 9/30 where we should get a sizable GSE Dividend from Fannie/Freddie. The size should be interesting….last September, it was almost $15B combined. Last quarter, it was only about $10B. I don’t have a good handle of Fannie and Freddie’s seasonal variation, but another YOY miss would raise some eyebrows on what was starting to look like a reliable $50B+ annual source of cash for Uncle Sam….

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 9/19/2014 was $5.4B pushing the surplus back up to $46B through 19 days.

No big moves for the day…revenues were up $0.5B and outlays were down a hair. Taxes not withheld are still flowing in and will through midweek before falling off to their normal trickle. They currently stand at about +5% and have been trending down, but there is still time for a surprise or two.