Check out my US Cash Deficit Primer over at TalkMarkets. And while you’re there….check out the rest of their site:)
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 9/18/2014 was $2.7B bringing the September surplus through 18 days to $41B.
Taxes not withheld took a $1B step back which is curious, but they still hold a $2.7B 7.3% lead over September 2013, so it’s probably just an anomaly. There is still plenty of time left for it to go either way, but it’s not looking like it will match the +30% we are still seeing in corporate taxes.
In other news….I haven’t discussed Medicaid in a while. After running hot all year, including a 36% YOY increase in July, August took a breather posting only a 2% gain. 18 days into September 2014 it’s looking like it will be another bad month with a 25-30% gain if current trends hold. That pencils out to about $5B increase per month…$60B annualized….outpacing even social security, a program more than twice its size.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 9/17/2014 was $4.3B following 9/16’s $16.9B surplus, bringing the September 2014 surplus through 17 days to $43B.
As discussed in the last post, taxes not withheld have begun to flow in at elevated levels thanks to it being a quarter end month and the related tax deadlines. Currently taxes not withheld from paychecks are running at +12% YOY…a good showing, but not in line with corporate taxes which are still at +30%. Overall revenues are up 12%…if we stay at this level, it will be the first month at +10% since March. In other…perhaps related news….Stocks ended the day at record highs.
The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 9/15/2014 was $70.6B pushing September to surplus as expected….a total of $32B.
This turned out to be a phenomenal day for corporate taxes with $59B worth flowing in vs just $42B last year good for a $17B and 30% YOY gain. this is definitely going to blow up my revenue forecast, but it’s good news(for the deficit…not so much corporations) so i’ll take it. I suppose the bottom line is…corporations are making more money and paying more taxes.
Looking at the Year To Date (YTD)….calendar…not fiscal….cash corporate tax payments are up 15%…and corporate tax refunds are down 10%. Taxes withheld from paychecks are up 5%….taxes not withheld are up 4%. Total revenues are up 4.6%…..with the reduced Fannie/Freddie payments dragging down the total no doubt.
Bottom line….it was a pretty good day. With corporate taxes mostly behind us, we can focus on taxes not withheld which should be picking up to the $5-10B per day rate as early as tomorrow.
The US Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 9/12/2014 was $10.6B bringing the September 2014 deficit to $39B through 12 days.
2013 and 2014 are a bit un-synced at the moment thanks to 9/15 falling on a weekend last year, but should fall back in line with Monday’s report. There was nothing extraordinary in Friday’s report, and we saw $9.3B of corporate taxes, which is more or less in line with expectations. We should add another $40B+ to that over the next few days…pushing the month to a surplus….probably by tomorrows report.