August 2013

The US Cash Deficit for 8/23/2013 was $1.8B bringing the August 2013 Deficit through 23 days to $119B. Revenue pulled to within $1B of last years pace with five business days to go. Getting to the +20B needed for 10% YOY gains doesn’t look like it is going to happen this month…absent some revenue surprise, but we’ve seen those before.

Outlays look like they are showing a $24B improvement…but the final social security payment that goes out Wednesday should wipe out about $12B of that. My $155B estimate for the August deficit is starting to look a bit conservative. Monday will likely post a small surplus…followed by moderate deficits Tuesday-Thursday, and a large deficit Friday, perhaps $30-$40B as payments due 9/1 are made a day early…

The US Cash Deficit for 8/21/2013 was $7.7B and the cash deficit for 8/22/2013 was $5.4B, bringing the August 2013 deficit through 22 days to $117B.

In the past two days…revenue made a few baby steps forward, but with six business days remaining in the month remains $3B behind the pace set by August 2012.

The US Cash Deficit for 8/20/2013 was $7.1B pushing the August 2013 deficit though 20 days back over $100B to $104B with 8 business days remaining.

After a couple days of gains, Revenues stepped back…losing $1B of ground with 2012, settling at $-4B with 8 business days remaining. Outlays continue to run about $10B under last year after adjusting for the timing of Social Security with the most apparent cuts still in Defense Vendor Payments and Education Department programs.

So…with 8 business days left, I see no reason to change the monthly deficit forecast I started with at $155B. There is some significant uncertainty regarding the month end where payments due 9/1 (Saturday) will be paid 8/31…I am guessing $35B, but I don’t have a good enough handle on it to nail it down. So…We are still on track for $155B+/- $10B…I think 🙂

The US Cash Surplus for 8/19/2013 was $3.1B pushing the August 2013 Deficit through 19 days down to $97B with 9 business days remaining in the month. Revenue continues to make gains…inching to within $3B of last year. I expect continued gains, but with 9 business days left, getting to +10% is going to be a challenge, but not impossible.

The US Cash Surplus for 8/16/2013 was $3.5B bringing the August 2013 deficit through 16 days to $100B with 10 business days remaining. Revenues finally caught a break…making up $8B of the $13B deficit vs. last year we had as of the last report. At 4% down, it would be a safe bet that steady ground will be made up over the rest of the month…I am forecasting we get up to around +5%, but willing to be pleasantly surprised.

For the coming week, the deficit will be moderate, maybe $15B-$20B +/- as Monday and Friday will likely post surplus, offset by deficits Tuesday-Thursday. No real action on the schedule from what I can see, so we will just keep our eye on the YOY revenues as we march toward the end of the month.