The US Daily Deficit for 12/26 was $7.9B, pulling the surplus down to $21.6B with 3 business days remaining in December. Not that it really matters, but whether or not December finishes in the black is going to come down to 12/31 outlays. I’m expecting a large deficit on the order of $20B as January payments get pulled into December since the 1st is a holiday. Note that we won’t do any adjustments for this since this happens every year. Statistically, I’d put the odds 50/50, but posting a surplus in December would make a good headline for somebody, so if I had to bet, that’s where I’d go.
Good news…the generous editors at Seeking Alpha have published another article of mine…go check it out:
The US Daily surplus for 12/24/2012 was $12.1B pushing the surplus for the month to 29.4B. With four business days remaining, it is a very real possibility that we could end December with a surplus for the first time since 2007. I’ll go ahead and take one on the chin and further revise my estimate down to 0, +/- $10B for the month of December. As it stands, revenue is up $28B and outlays are down $34B for a $62B improvement over last year through 24 days. While the outlay improvement is primarily a timing issue, there is no explaining away the revenue improvement…let’s see if it sticks in January.
The US Daily Deficit for 12/20/2012 was $4.3B bringing the December Surplus through 20 days to $16B and dwindling fast. Revenue continues to build it’s lead on last year, now up to $20B and while behind due to timing, outlays are catching up to last year despite giving 2011 a $30B head start. Stay tuned… if I have a chance I’m hoping to complete a 2012 deficit preview for next Wednesday. Other than that, posting will be light. Enjoy the holidays!!