The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 8/1/2014 was $62.2B…a huge number, but actually typical for the first day of the month. In this case, $24B of SS payments due Sunday 8/3 went out early because of the weekend.
For timing, as is typical, I am adjusting for day of week for 2014 vs 2013. So The chart above compares Friday 8/1/2014 to Thursday 8/1/2013 and Friday 8/2/2013. 2013 gets an extra business day from the start….and will finish the month with an extra business day, making revenues a little tougher to beat, and outlays a little easier.
We start the month $6B down on revenues and $4B down on outlays, good for a $2.8B deficit lead over 2014. Those are the numbers to watch. if we are going to hit +5% on revenues we need to get to about +$10B. It’s certainly possible, but given the one fewer business day and the overall slowing trend we’ve seen over the past 4 months, I’m not holding my breath.
