The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 2/21/2014 was $4.6B bringing the February 2014 deficit to $154B with 5 business days remaining.
No material movement on the day. Refunds were up a bit, revenue was down a bit, and outlays were up…leading to a loss of ~1.5B vs 2013…well within normal variations. Hitting a $200B+ deficit for the month looks like a sure thing given that Friday will likely have a ~$35B deficit, and we still have $12B of SS to go on Wednesday. The big wildcard is going to be refunds. Last year the last week of February sent out ~$30B of tax refunds….given how unpredictable they have been so far….Nothing within +/-$15B of last year would surprise me at this point.
