Revenue flat and outlays up a bit, pushing the September Cash deficit from $5B last year to $14B. September will generally run a small surplus due to quarter end tax inflows, but for 2 years in a row now October 1 has been on the weekend, pulling about $40B net of October outflows due October 1 into September……going out 9-29 instead. It’s just a timing issue…Septembers loss is Octobers gain.
Looking at the 2017 through 9 months, revenue is up 2.9% and outlays are up 2.4%…and they more or less cancel each other out, leaving the annual deficit at $478B, just $3B lower than last year. With 3 months left, there is no reason to expect a material variance for the year…2016’s full year cash deficit was $697B…2017 should be right around there. 2018 will probably look similar as well, with both outlays and revenue growing at 2-3% . So…we have a new baseline…a $700B annual cash burn…for now…all it will take is a war, a recession, tax cuts, or all 3 and this new normal….as terrible as it is…could get a lot worse fast.
