The US Daily Cash Deficit for 3/20/2013 was $6.3B bringing the March 2013 deficit to $80B through 21 days. Per my math…tax deposits are sitting right at 10% over year ago numbers….we’ll see if that sticks.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for 3/19/2013 was $7.8B, bringing the monthly total to $61B, vs. year ago deficit of $50B
I think it is worth noting that tax deposits are up $16B over last year…an 11% improvement, which is in line with January…February only posted 4% growth. If I see this continuing past tax season and into May/June, we can probably say that yes, we have a bonafide 10% or so increase in tax revenues….for one year. The problem with the CBO report is that it forecasts that growth again for 2014 and then 12% for 2015. Taxes were raised once…so a jump from 2012 to 2013 was expected….but it creates a new baseline….Any revenue growth from 2013 to 2014 and beyond then needs to come from bonafide growth…all else equal. This isn’t completely unprecedented…5/2005 to 4/2007 was 24 months in a row of 10% yoy growth in FTD’s, but I think we all remember how that ended. Who knows what the future holds, but to me, this sure doesn’t feel like 2005.
[Update] Just for some reference…the number of people employed grew at 1.1% over the last 12 months. Assuming that stays relatively constant…the only way we get to 11% growth again next year is that we all pay another 10% on top of what we did this year….Go get ’em!!
The US Daily Cash Surplus for 3/18/2013 was $17.1B on very strong revenues, even for a Monday.
Through 18 days, everything is more or less lined up again…at least until tomorrow…
The US Daily Cash Surplus for 3/15/2013 was $17.7B, driven, as expected by $21.5B in corporate tax revenues. It wasn’t exactly a blowout, but for the month Corporate Tax deposits are running $2B over last year. If we compare fiscal year to fiscal year through 5.5 months, there is an 11% improvement…but, this is only $12B, so the magnitude isn’t really enough to move the needle much, and the rate of growth seems to be slowing….more on that another day.
Looking at the charts, we can see that net revenues are still down and outlays are flat, for a $14B higher deficit than last year through 15 days. With corporate taxes behind us, absent some big surprises, it is looking more likely that the March 2013 deficit will come in under last year’s $139B due to month end timing of outlays. 3/30/2012 had about $45B in outlays ($10B is a typical uneventful day). ~$15B I am certain will not go out until 4/1 this year…Another $16B is Medicare outlays…I don’t know where that one will end up, so that’s $16B of uncertainty right from the beginning…I’ll just say that anywhere between $115B and $139B is looking likely, though timing of some large outlays could easily swing it either way.
The US Cash Deficit for 3/14/2013 was $1.3B bringing the March Deficit through 14 days to $88B.
