Daily Deficit

The US Daily Surplus for 4/17/2013 was $5.6B bringing the April 2013 surplus through 17 days to $14B, now $9B better than 2012. Revenues continue to outpace 2012 by a large margin, and are now showing a 17% YOY improvement for April. Outlays, adjusted for timing do appear to be down a little, which we would expect given the ongoing “sequester”.

It now appears likely that 4/2013 will exceed last April’s $59B surplus and become the largest surplus recorded since 4/2008, when we posted a $188B surplus….Of course I think we all remember how that ended up…just a few months later, the deficit started to explode as revenues started falling and outlays started ballooning into the “great recession”. I’m not predicting that, but given the news cycle and the recent stock market nose dives, I don’t think it would shock anybody. I just thought it was a little eery…here’s the revenue chart for 2006-2013 trailing twelve month cash revenues.

You will probably need to click to enlarge, but the peak we see in 2008 is April…from there almost straight downhill. Still…you have to admit, a nice recovery starting in 2011 through today…do note that the April 2013 forward are forecasted.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for 4/16/2013 was $24.4B pushing April 2013 to a surplus of $8B, now $1B ahead of last year through the same number of business days. Strong revenues is the big story here with the haul over the last two days exceeding the same period last year by $19B. Looking at the month to date, net revenue is up $24B, good for a 14% increase. Corporate tax deposits are up 27%, and tax deposits not withheld are up 25%.

Surprisingly, tax deposits withheld are only up 2%, which is a trend we saw earlier in the month as well. If that doesn’t end the month a lot closer to 10%, it could be a red flag that part of the sizable revenue increases we have seen in 2013 are not sustainable, and are just a one time spike caused by income being pulled into 2012 to avoid the 2013 tax hikes. The test will be May-June, which are far enough away from 2012 and tax season that we should be able to use them as our first clear YOY snapshot. If we still see across the board revenue increases over 11%-12% in May-June, it would provide some indication that at least for now, the 2013 tax hikes have some staying power. If instead we see a steep dropoff, watch out, because the CBO is projecting 11-12% annual revenue growth for 2013-2015. If they are wrong, every forecast you’ve heard from both sides of the aisle about deficit reduction over the last few months can be junked.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for 4/12/2013 was a not so shabby $7.7B. Still no major divergences from 2012…if it’s gonna happen we should see it this week. (15-19th). Using last year as a guide, we could see a weekly surplus in the $70B range, completely wiping out the current April deficit of $65B through 12 days.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 4/11/2013 was $0.4B bringing the April 2013 total deficit through 10 days to $73B. This is likely the peak, as strong “tax month” revenues should continue to roll in, pushing the current $73B deficit close to the $59B surplus we saw last year.  2013 still has a $22B hole to climb out of to match or exceed 4/2012, but a combination of slightly lower outlays, strong revenues (+10% or so) and an extra business day could easily bridge that gap….or not.