Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 4/24/2013 was $2.7B, breaking a nearly 2 week string of surpluses as the final round of SS payments went out, pushing cost over still strong revenues. At $350B in net cash revenues, we are already ahead of last April’s $330B and well within reach of $400B. This wouldn’t be an all time high…April 2008 would still hold that at $430B of revenue and a $188B surplus. Curiously, 5/2008 went on to post a $154B deficit, nearly wiping out all of the gains from April’s record surplus. Doh!!

With 4 business days remaining, $105B looks like a good deficit estimate…factoring in 1 extra business day and a continuation if strong revenues. As fun as April has been…I still think the real story is going to be told in what happens over the May-June period.  These months will give us our first glance at the new 2013 tax policy, uncorrupted by year end shenanigans by businesses and individuals. 11%YOY Revenue  growth should be the baseline with slightly lower cost.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for 4/23/2013 was $39.3B bringing the April 2013 surplus to $95B with 5 business days to go. After a breather yesterday, the large revenue surge I was expecting but unsure of did come through and it exceeded last year by $12B, so another great day. If we can use last year as a guide…which is far from a sure thing…the April revenue party is now pretty much over. We will likely run a small net surplus over the rest of the month, so hitting $100B seems likely. Hitting $120B…possible, but it seems unlikely.

The US Daily Surplus for 4/22/2013 was $17.3B…an impressive number in it’s own right, but more or less in line with last year’s 4/23/2012 Surplus…. taking a breather from the 20%+ YOY gains we have been witnessing in some categories.

This kind of illustrates the challenge I expect to see in 2014. Without a doubt…as far as tax revenues are concerned…last week was a blowout with many categories exceeding YOY by 30% or so. As impressive as it is….it is extremely difficult to maintain that kind of exponential growth beyond a cycle or two because you have to keep growing an ever expanding base. So while we very well may end April 2013 with 15-20% revenue growth….driven by several factors including a tax hike… seeing that repeat again in 2014 would mean something like an additional $50-$75B over an already impressive April 2013. I’m not holding my breath…

So here we are through 22 days of April 2013 with a $56B surplus. There is still a little uncertainty, but $100B appears to be in reach, but by no means certain.

The US Daily Surplus for 4/19/2013 was $11.6T…the “Surge” continues…

Witheld tax deposits are now up 9% with tax deposits not withheld up a whopping 34%. Corporate taxes are up 26%.Net revenues are up 22%through 3 weeks, with 7 business days to go. It seems like a pretty solid bet that April 2013 will top April 2012 by a healthy margin….topping $100B even looks quite possible. There is one little thing…last year on Tuesday 4/24, there was a large spike in revenues to $35B. I’m sure there is a reason because I see the pattern….a large spike in revenues ~ the Tuesday after tax day for the last 3 years. Whatever it is, I have to assume we will see it again this year….but if it doesn’t, it’s going to pull down revenues by a material amount. We’ll know by Wednesday at 4pm.

The US Daily Surplus for 4/18/2013 was $13.6B…in short, the cash continues to pour in. The fat lady hasn’t sang yet, but there is no denying that total net revenues are now up 20% over last April. Assuming everything just evened out tomorrow, we would end the month with a $80B surplus. If this pace continues, topping $100B+ certainly seems well within reach.

All that said, I have to admit the revenues have surprised me…I had 12% penciled in…we are sitting at 20% and gaining daily it seems. However, I just want to be clear….these suprising and positive developments we have seen over the last couple of weeks in no way shape or form mean we are saved, out of the woods, or even close to having materially fixed any of our problems. Let’s say we end up at a $120B surplus…double last year. We are still talking about a $60B improvement in a $1,000B hole. Six months into the 2013 fiscal year, which had a $1.092T deficit, we have seen an $82B improvement, with a strong push lets say we get down to $900B. That’s still a $900B annual deficit…how do you get it to zero?  While this month’s strong revenues are likely being driven by the 2013 tax hikes, moderately higher employment, and a pretty big run up in the stock market (until the last week or so)…seeing 10% + revenue growth again next year seems unlikely…without additional tax hikes, they should grow at roughly the rate of the economy.

So..to wrap this up…we are having a relatively good month…Hooray for us!! Just remember, this is a few weeks of data points in the vast economic ocean. If we are still seeing 20%+ revenue growth in 6 months (or even 3)…I’ll be happily pointing that out to the world….but in the meantime, I’m not holding my breath.