Category

Daily Deficit

Jul 26
0

7/24/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 7/24/2013 was $9.9B pushing the July 2013 deficit through 24 days to $90B with five business days remaining. After several weeks of pulling away from 2012, 7/24 delivers an apparent 5B setback to revenue bumping us back down to 4% YOY growth. However, after further investigation, I suspect most of this is due to small timing differences…a ~4B deposit from the states is likely to come through tomorrow should put us right back up around 7-8%.

07-24-2013 USDD

So…with a week remaining, we are at $90B. I could see this going +/-$10B from here with the big unknown being the extra day…next Wednesday. Typically, Wednesdays have pretty solid revenue numbers, but the large SS payments that go out in week 2-4 on Wednesdays typically make it a big deficit day. So outlays should run at reduced levels, but revenue…I am not sure.

Cash:

Cash in hand, at $51B is looking a bit light to make it through August…which will probably run a $125B-$150B deficit. Can Treasury pull $100B out of their magic hat??? Sure…why not?? They’ve done it before…it would be a bit naïve of me to assume otherwise….but still, I can’t help but watch…just in case something crazy happens. Even if they make it through August, they have to squeak by the first two weeks of September before revenue really starts pouring in….then October comes on strong with another nearly $100B deficit.

Jul 25
0

7/23/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 7/23/2013 was $2.7B bringing the July 2013 deficit through 23 days to $80B with six business days remaining.

07-23-2013 USDD

I think it is worth noting that 2013 is now within $10B of last year, despite a $35B head start due to the timing of outlays…if you recall, about $35B of July 2012 outlays due the first went out in late June because of how the weekend fell. So, in reality, we have about a $25B improvement so far…$11B on the revenue side and about $14B of reduced outlays. Is the Sequester actually working??

Of the reduced outlays, two stick out…Defense Vendor Payments through the same number of business days in July2012 were ~$26B. 2013…only $18B, a 30%  and $8B reduction. Education Dept. Programs, whatever that is, was $12B last year…6.5B in 2013… a 45% reduction with about a week left. The only big event remaining this month is the final Social Security payment which went out today at ~12B that should cause a ~$5-$10B deficit when it shows up in tomorrow’s report. The remaining days should be +/- a few $B…more or less cancelling each other out absent some surprises.

Jul 23
0

7/19/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit

The Daily US Cash deficit for 7/19/2013 was $0.1B, leaving the cumulative July 2013 deficit at $83B, $16B over last year through 19 days. Revenue was strong, pushing the YOY up from 5.5% to nearly 7% with eight business days remaining. Just for reference, last July had about $200B of net cash revenues, so when I say we are looking for a 10% improvement….we are talking about $20B..roughly $1B per day. In a $3.8T budget, it probably doesn’t sound like much, but I’m the first to admit…string 3 or 4 years of +10% revenue together with mostly flat outlays, and it makes a huge difference to the big picture. So here we are….7 months running +10%, thanks primarily to tax increases. I’m not holding my breath….I’m more or less expecting this +10% growth to be a one year boost, but I’m willing to be pleasantly surprised (unless I have to pay the extra taxes :))

07-19-2013 USDD

I’m not sure what to expect for the rest of the month. Historically, we should be on trend to touch $100B, but there seems to be a shift for some reason…where late month revenues are stronger than they have been historically, causing the month to look weak for the first half….then finish strong and make my projections look a little doomy. So, I’ll hold off for now, and just say that cost does look like several categories will show significant reductions, and revenue looks to be on pace to end around 10%.

Jul 20
0

7/18/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 7/18/2013 was $5.7B bringing the July 2013 cash deficit to $83B with nine business days remaining. That’s already $3B over the estimate I made at the beginning of the month and looking at historical patterns, it would be a bit abnormal to see much improvement over the rest of the month, but you never know anymore.

07-18-2013 USDD

Revenues are still sitting on +5.5%. The extra day should be good for  about+$9B…a 4% bump….so I suppose we are more or less on track for the +10% we are looking for, but August is going to be a real challenge. On cost…I think we are likely to see some real improvement by month end…(adjusted for timing of course.) Defense vendors and education look to be the big cuts so far…even interest is down about $1B…thanks ZIRP!!