The US Cash Deficit for 8/8/2013 was $6.2 bringing the August 2013 deficit through 8 days to $58B. Nothing out of the ordinary here…stay tuned for next week when we should receive a few small revenue bumps on corporate and excise taxes, and large outlays with ~$30B of interest expense and the second round of social security. After almost no deficit this week, we will probably end next week around to $100B for the month with 2 weeks remaining.
The Daily Cash Surplus for 8/7/2013 was $5.3B pushing the August 2013 deficit through one full week down to $52B.
Revenues lost a bit of ground today…last August about $9B of revenues came from TARP payoffs….we’ve been averaging only $2B per month in 2013, and it won’t be long before that gets down to zero. We are back to -$12B…we need to be at +$20B by the end of the month. We could get there…I haven’t crunched the numbers, but it does seem like compared to last year, the month’s seem to start out weak and end strong. I don’t know what could be behind the evolving pattern, but it is definitely something to keep in mind this early in the month.
Outlays appear to be down quite a bit, but $12B of that is related to the timing of SS payments…2013’s round two won’t go out until next Wednesday 8/14…last years went out 8/8 (which is included…as discussed in the 8/1 USDD). Other than that…there is one less day, and given the end of month timing, outlays for August 2013 should come in $40B or more under last year
The Daily Cash Deficit for 8/6/2013 was $3.0B pushing the August 2013 deficit through 6 days to $57B. Nothing out of the ordinary…typically low cash revenues…like we usually see on Tuesdays and Thursdays with moderate outlays.
Compared to last year…the deficit is a bit lower and I expect it to stay that way. Aug 2012 went on to post a $211B deficit…I am only projecting $155B for this month on higher revenues, lower outlays, and timing.
The Daily Cash Surplus for 8/5/2013 was $5.2B bringing the deficit through 5 days to $54B…right in line with 2012.
Revenues picked up $3B…of the $31B they needed as of the last report to make it to +10%. I really don’t expect a lot of action until next week. Wednesday 8/14 round 2 of SS goes out and it looks like 8/15 has ~30B of interest payments due. But the main thing we should be looking at is revenues. I don’t expect a lot of uncertainty around outlays for the rest of the year…they will probably end the year down 1-2%..I don’t anticipate any large swings either way. Revenues… on the other hand…after a +15% to start the year (Jan-Apr)…have stepped down a notch to around 10%. Any further degradation of these YOY gains…say down to the 5% or do range is going to have a big effect on the 2014 deficit and beyond.
The US Cash Deficit for 8/2/2013 was $23.8B thanks primarily to the first round of Social Security checks going out. Through 2 days, the August 2013 deficit is at $59B…on it’s way to $155B if my calculations are correct:)
As expected…due to the extra business day last year, August 2013 starts in a small revenue hole, but it’s not huge…$11B at this point. In order to reach the +10% we’ve come to expect, we need to get to about +20B. I’m a bit skeptical at this point, but crazier things have happened.