Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Tax Day, Tuesday 4/15/2014 was a very healthy $63.5B, wiping out the monthly deficit and bringing us to a $12B surplus at the halfway point.

For comparison, 4/15/2013 had a $48.9B surplus. Corporate taxes, the biggest haul of the day came in at $32.9B compared to $32.3B last year….so basically flat. Curiously, taxes not withheld came in at $19.2B compared to just $4.7B last year. Is this a sign of another blowout April, or just a timing issue? My gut says timing, but I flipped back all the way to 2008…the last time 4/15 was on a Tuesday, and see no precedent for such a large spike.

Typically, those who owe large tax bills write checks and drop them in the mail around 11:59PM 4/15…thus getting a 4/15 postal stamp and adding at least a few days before the check actually clears their account. Last year, 4/16 brought in $23B of taxes not withheld, and they continued to pour in at elevated levels for the rest of the month.

So tomorrow….if we see 24B+, we can probably assume it was not just a one off timing event. If, however we see it fall and the two days average out the same as last year, it was likely timing.

All together, we have to look at the day as a positive, with a small question mark to be resolved tomorrow. Through half a month, we have solid 5%+ gains across most of our major revenue categories with the exceptions being taxes not withheld at +65%…see note above, and withheld taxes down 4%, representing a $3.6B decrease. This is curious, but not necessarily alarming…yet. Outlays are mostly flat. There is still a lot of month left, but so far, so good.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 4/14/2014 was $18.6B pulling the April Deficit through 14 days to $51B. This deficit is unlikely to last much longer…if it isn’t wiped out tomorrow, Wednesday will…..that’s a good thing by the way 🙂

Now to the charts. Remember…no adjustments here. 4/14/2013 was a Sunday, so while we are even on business days, we do have some distortions. Outlays are still flat, but 2014 revenues have finally taken a clear lead. This of course was expected, but I won’t be too impressed until it sticks for at least a few more days.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 4/11/2014 was $3.6B bringing the April 2014 deficit through 11 days to $70B.

Everything is still pretty much tied up between 2014 and 2013. The next week and a half will likely be a bit messy, but we should have a good idea what kind of month we are going to have by next Thursday.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 4/10/2014 was $3.6B bringing the April 2014 cash deficit to $74B through 10 days.

I have decided to “unsync” 2014 and 2013 and go back to a straight calendar day comparison. I typically sync up on days of week because a lot of the cash inflows and outflows are driven by day of week…for example SS payments go out the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Wednesday of the month(as well as the 3rd of the month). But April is a bit different. Those patterns still exist, but the dominant event of the month is tax day, April 15th, which will bring with it a surge of revenues. As such, proximity to 4/15 will be a large driver, and rather than complicate the issue by adjusting for day of week, from here on out, the charts will be unadjusted. So the charts above compare all years…10 days of April…regardless of day of week.

So…looking at April…2013 and 2014 are pretty much in sync. The forecast for a $180B surplus I made earlier in the month is dependent on a 13% YOY ($56B) increase in revenues. It’s not time to panic….most of that gain…if it happens will likely be seen after 4/15…but it is a bit curious that so far…nothing.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 4/9/2014 was $12.1B bringing the April 2014 deficit through 9 days to $70B.

No signs of an impending revenue surge yet….we are still pretty much in line with last year after adjusting for business days. It’s kind of hard to believe that we will go from a $70B deficit today to potentially a ~$180B surplus in just a few weeks, but that’s what the tarot cards say…