The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 7/25/2014 was $0.4B leaving the July deficit virtually unchanged at $88B with 4 business days remaining.
Revenues were down a bit and outlays were up. If patterns hold…we appear to be headed for an ~$80B deficit compared to my initial $60B guess. So what happened?? Outlays are surprisingly strong despite favorable timing…and revenues are under what I had expected, though they do seem like they may come in at about +5%
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 7/24/2014 was $7.8B bringing the July 2014 deficit through 24 days to $88B.
No real change in overall YOY revenues or outlays, though there was a $3B Medicaid payment that pushes us to $24B for the month…with 5 days remaining. It looks quite likely we will break a record set back in Dec-2010 at $27.8B. But unlike 2010, which was a one time spike…this is starting to look like a very bad trend…let’s just hope it stabilizes somewhat next year…
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 7/24/2014 was $8.4B bringing the July 2014 deficit to $80B with 6 business days remaining.
That revenue timing issue we discussed yesterday has resolved, pushing us back to +$4B for the month. Looking to last year, the deficit over the last week of the month was negligible with surpluses and deficits netting out. If that continues…we would end this month $20B over my $60B deficit forecast and $10B under last July’s $90B deficit. I really don’t know, but I’d be more inclined to guess we drift down a bit from here (because I’m an optimist 🙂 )….but down to $60B seems highly unlikely….maybe $75??
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Tuesday 7/22/2014 was $4.6B bringing the July 2014 deficit through 22 days to $72B.
Revenue takes a step back YOY….about $1.5B, but it looks like timing to me, so we should pick it back up soon. Outlays continue to edge up….it is starting to look quite likely that July 2014 outlays exceed July 2013…despite a $6B timing benefit. it’s nothing especially alarming…but I would guess we are getting close to a point where total outlays start to grow again after being on a plateau at ~$3.8T for the last 4-5 years. Over that time, we have seen growth in SS/Medicare/Medicaid being offset by cuts elsewhere. Sooner or later…those “cuts” are going to bottom out/plateau…and the growth in SS/Medicare/Medicaid is going to start pulling is back toward $4T. If/when revenue growth starts to falter….we will quickly see a reversal in the deficit improvement we have seen for 5 years now. just a recap…the trailing twelve month (TTM) deficit topped out at $1.8T in 9/2009….and has steadily fallen ever since sitting at ~$600B as of the end of last month. That’s still a huge unsustainable number, but at least it’s not $1.8T….baby steps right?
The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 7/21/2014 was $2.5B bringing the July 2014 deficit through 21 days to $67B.
For the day…YOY revenues were flat with outlays gaining about $3B mostly on Medicare and Medicaid. Medicaid now sits at $19.442B, just ~$3B shy of the full month of July in 2013 at $22.744B. With 8 days remaining, and a run rate a bit over $1B a day…$27B is quite possible. That’s nearly 18% YOY growth for the month, but to put it in perspective….that’s about $50B per year annualized…or about the same annualized $ growth we are seeing out of SS…a program nearly 3 times the size of Medicaid.
That said….as long as revenue keeps growing at a +5% rate…the deficit will continue shrinking…just not as fast as it has been. And that’s why I watch revenues so closely… If we get 3-4 months in a row of minimal revenue growth….it’s time to start getting worried(more). April-May was close…but June was ok after adjustments for Fannie, and July looks to be over 5%