Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 8/22/2014 was $0.6B bringing the August 2014 Deficit through 22 days to $119B.

We have five days left in the month..enough time for some movement, but absent any large surprised (like maybe the $17B BoA settlement) we appear to be on track for $160-$170B deficit…just like last year.  It’s still too early to say for sure….but it’s starting to look like the deficit has more or less hit a plateau at the $500-$600B level.

Above we have a chart of the TTM deficit from 2006 to present. You see it chugging along at $200B or so (the good ‘ol days) before spiking up to $1.8T….and then improving more or less for 5 years now. …until April-2014. Clearly anything can happen…but it would be a lot better to hit a plateau back around $200B….

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 8/21/2014 was $5.9B following Wednesday’s $8.3B deficit, bringing the August 2014 deficit through 21 days to $119B with 6 business days remaining.

2013 and 2014 revenues and outlays remain pretty much tied up. I wouldn’t expect a whole lot of change over six days, but revenues and outlays will probably continue to gain over 2013, each ending up a few percent.

The Us Daily Cash Deficit for Tuesday 8/19/2014 was $9.6B bringing the August 2014 deficit through 19 days to $105B.

Revenues lost a little bit of ground and outlays were up about $2B.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 8/18/2014 was $11.8B, dropping the August 2014 deficit back under $100B to $95B with 9 business days remaining.

Not a whole lot has changed since my last  USDD post nearly 2 weeks ago….August 2014 and August 2013 are more or less synced up. 2014 revenue has taken a $1B lead with outlays up only a smidge….rounding out to ~1B YOY improvement so far (charts above independently rounded). From here on out, the deficit should drift gradually higher before Friday 8/29 when a ~$35B deficit pushes the month up to the $160-170B range. Primarily…I’m watching revenues (+1%…hoping for +5%), and to a lesser degree Medicare/Medicaid….which at least at this point do not look like they are on track to repeat last months huge spikes, though they will likely show growth.