Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 9/5/2014 was $0.6B bringing the September 2014 deficit through one week to $42B.

Revenues are looking solid through one week at about +5%. Outlays appear way up…but this is the ~$18B of Medicare that went out in late August in 2013, but early September in 2014. Other than that, we appear to be pretty much aligned. September, being a quarter end should post some solid revenue numbers reversing August’s huge deficit with a surplus….I’m guessing in the $60B range. Look for the revenue surge to start next Monday 9/15 with corporate taxes in the $50B range…followed by a steady flow of personal taxes through the end of the month.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 8/29/2014 was $17.5B bringing the August 2014 Deficit to $155B for the full month compared to $173B last year.

You may recall…I was forecasting a huge deficit for Friday, and I suppose $17.5B is a pretty big number, but I was looking for something in the $30-$35B range. In a typical month, a large Medicare payment of about $18B goes out early in the month, but I with the holiday on 9/1, I assumed it would be paid on the last day of August like it was last year. For whatever reason…it didn’t….I’m sure we will see it 9/2….

If you ignore this timing event, August 2013 and August 2014 were pretty much the same….with marginal revenues gains being cancelled out by an increase in outlays.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 8/28/2014 was $6.5B, following Wednesday’s $12.2B deficit. and bringing the August 2014 deficit to $137B with one business day remaining.

2014 and 2013 remain pretty much neck and neck with a huge deficit on deck for Friday. Odds are they will stay pretty close, but you never know. revenues are sitting at only +1.2%…..we are hoping for closer to +5%, which looks unlikely. However….part of that is the missing business day….which we will catch up next month.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Tuesday 8/26/2014 was $4.8B bringing the August 2014 deficit through 26 days to $119B with three business days left.

We are still pretty much all tied up with 2013. Tomorrow will post a ~$10B deficit with the last round of SS payments, Thursday will likely post a ~$2B deficit, and Friday looks like it will come in ~$35B or so…putting us somewhere between $160B and $170B for the month.