Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 5/8/2015 was $1.1B bringing the May deficit through 8 days to $44B.

At is standard practice here I have synced up 2014 and 2015 based on the days of week….so we are comparing May 2015 through Friday 5/8/ to May 2014 through Friday 5/9. This gives 2014 an extra business day, a lead it will maintain for the entire month.

Revenues look ok….up $1B despite being down a day. Outlays also look on track….down a bit thanks to the fewer days.

Last May posted a $144B deficit, but I am forecasting this May at just $100B. the primary reason is that last May had a month end timing issue that pulled ~35B of cost from 6/1 into May. this year won’t have that. I am also anticipating revenue continues to have moderate YOY growth (5%-7%) and outlays, are growing at ~3% without timing events. May isn’t nearly as exciting as April…the deficit should trickle up from here, with 5/15 having corporate taxes, plus a big interest payment due. The main key is to keep an eye on YOY revenue….anything over 5% is a keeper.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 4/30/2015 was $1B bringing the April 2015 full month Surplus to $178B topping both last April’s $125B surplus and my forecast of $155B by a healthy margin. For a better month, you have to go back to April of 2008….yes that 2008…. at $$188B Surplus, which was the best month ever in my data set going back to 1999.

Without a doubt Revenue stole the show posting a +$57B gain YOY, good for +13%. Not too shabby given current GDP growth.  Outlays were up $5B, with higher SS/Medicare/Medicaid spending being partially offset by decreases in payments to “Defense Vendors”, “Education”, and “Other”.

For the YTD 1/3 of the way in, Revenues are up 10% and outlays are up 4%, which pencils out to a  $62B YOY improvement down to $85B. We are still on track to hit ~$400B deficit for the full year, including $110B in May alone. Of course, that’s on the current trajectory, which could change course at any time.

Cash in hand….just $35B at the end of February has soared to $274B as Treasury has opted to keep  debt at the limit rather than pay anything down with their cash hoard. We are now a month and a half into “Extraordinary Measures” (EM) , and back of the envelope I would guess they have burned through about $100B of ~$350B of this accounting magic trick. So $250B of EM, and $274B of cash in hand gives us $525B of cushion before the vault is empty. This gets us all the way to next February’s tax refund season, and the primaries for the 2016 presidential race. I’m not sure if that’s good or bad, but I’m guessing it will get some press coverage, so mark your calendar:)

Put it all together, and it was a really good month. The key here will be to see how May and June follow this up. Remember that a good chunk of the taxes paid in April were related to last year, so April isn’t always a good indicator of the current trend.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for 4/24/2015 was $11.8B bringing the April Surplus with 4 business days remaining to $142B.

Revenue continues to pour in building 2015’s lead over 2014 to +10% and likely headed higher. This is actually really good news for the deficit…not so good for taxpayers wallets. For the year, we have revenues up 9%, outlays up 3%. My initial forecast was for a $155B surplus…With 4 days left, ~$170B looks possible, though it is highly dependent on how long taxes not withheld keep flowing in. 4/24, they were at $17B vs $9B a year ago. Historically these fall off a cliff and are down to about $1B by month end, so any change in this pattern could drive the surplus even higher.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Tuesday 4/21/2015 was $46.1B bringing the April 2015 surplus through 21 days to $112B.

It was a good day for revenues, with taxes not withheld coming in at $54B compared to last year at $46B. This more or less puts to bed any lingering doubts I had about April’s revenues. We are currently at +17B, good for +5%, and since we pick up an extra day of revenue (and expenses) at the end of the month, +10% is probably within reach, but it will depend on how quickly unwithheld tax deposits fall off from here. The peak was today at $54B, and will probably fall to $15-20B tomorrow, shrinking back under $1B by the end of the month.

Outlays look flat due to one less business day, but will likely by up +3% or so by the end of the month. Medicaid, as has become typical is leading the pack….it will probably be up over 10% YOY

Looking to the Annual YOY, we have revenues up ~7% and outlays up ~4%, leaving us with a $27B deficit improvement. Not great, but we’ll take it.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 4/17/2015 was $18.4B bringing the April 2015 surplus through 17 days to $47B.

We finally see some signs of life on the revenue side with nearly a $10B YOY gain on the day. This more or less alleviates the concerns of weakness I have had for the past few days making it much more likely it was primarily related to timing rather than weak revenues. We should have a much better idea by the end of the week either way.