Daily Deficit

The Us Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 6/26/2015 was $0.4B bringing the June 2015 surplus with two business days remaining at $40B.

Revenues are holding steady at about +5% while outlays, adjusted for ~$35B of timing are up about 1%. With most of the month in the bag, I wouldn’t expect a big swing from here, but revenue could edge down a bit as the reduction in the YOY Fannie/Freddie payments will likely overshadow the benefit of an extra business day. My initial forecast of a $50B surplus is still looking quite reasonable, but we won’t know for sure until tomorrow afternoon.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Tuesday 6/23/2015 was $0.2B bringing the June surplus through 23 days to $60B with 5 business days remaining.

With most of the action for the month in the bag, revenues are up 6.6%….not too shabby. We will likely end the month somewhere in this ballpark as an extra business day will be offset by lower Fannie/Freddie payments at the end of the month. So far, taxes withheld are up 3.6%, Taxes not withheld are up 5.3%, and corporate taxes are up 9%.

Outlays, adjusted for timing are pretty much in line with last year.

Looking to the YOY 2014 vs 2015, revenues are up 8.8% and outlays are up 2.8% as we approach the midpoint.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 6/17/2015 was $4.5B bringing the June 2015 surplus through 17 days to $34B with 9 business days remaining.

June Revenue sits at +3.7% over 2014, and while there is likely some beneficial timing for 2015, the month end Fannie/Freddie payments are likely to be well under last June’s $10B. more or less bringing us back to even. There is still a lot of month left, and for some reason we do generally see stronger YOY in the second half of the month, but we are clearly behind where I expected we would be at this point. Outlays are more or less right on target.

The Us Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 6-15-2015 was $71B wiping away the June deficit and pushing us to a $22B surplus at the midway point.

Corporate tax revenue were had a big day as expected coming in at $57B giving June 2015 a 10% YOY lead over 2014. Curiously, withheld taxes were down $7B vs Monday 6/16 last year…offsetting the gain in corporate taxes and holding the YOY to a mere 1.5% gain. If we get it back over the next few, we’d still be at around +5% on revenue for the month, and set to end up closer to +8% or so on the extra day. Next up are un-withheld taxes, which should start coming in at $5-10B per day for the rest of the week before trailing off by month end. It looks like we are going to have to wait at least a few more days for that clarity…stay tuned.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Thursday 6/11/2015 was $1.6B bringing the June 2015 deficit through 11 days to $63B.

Tax revenues should start flowing in over the next few days, including ~$50B of corporate taxes Monday which will likely push the deficit to surplus.  As it stands, revenues are up 4.5%…not too shabby, with outlays still being up big due to the timing issues discussed in the last post. Pull that out, and we are probably in our standard range of +1-3%. By the end of the week, we should have a much better feel for where revenue is headed, though revenues should remain elevated for the rest of the month.