Category

Daily Deficit

Dec 28
0

Daily US Deficit For 12/26/2012

By | Daily Deficit
The US Daily Deficit for 12/26 was $7.9B, pulling the surplus down to $21.6B with 3 business days remaining in December. Not that it really matters, but whether or not December finishes in the black is going to come down to 12/31 outlays. I’m expecting a large deficit on the order of $20B as January payments get pulled into December since the 1st is a holiday. Note that we won’t do any adjustments for this since this happens every year. Statistically, I’d put the odds 50/50, but posting a surplus in December would make a good headline for somebody, so if I had to bet, that’s where I’d go.

12-26 USDD

Dec 27
0

Daily US Deficit For 12/24/2012

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily surplus for 12/24/2012 was $12.1B pushing the surplus for the month to 29.4B. With four business days remaining, it is a very real possibility that we could end December with a surplus for the first time since 2007. I’ll go ahead and take one on the chin and further revise my estimate down to 0, +/- $10B for the month of December. As it stands, revenue is up $28B and outlays are down $34B for a $62B improvement over last year through 24 days. While the outlay improvement is primarily a timing issue, there is no explaining away the revenue improvement…let’s see if it sticks in January.

12-24 USDD

Dec 22
0

Daily US Deficit For 12/20/2012

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Deficit for 12/20/2012 was $4.3B bringing the December Surplus through 20 days to $16B and dwindling fast. Revenue continues to build it’s lead on last year, now up to $20B and while behind due to timing, outlays are catching up to last year despite giving 2011 a $30B head start.  Stay tuned… if I have a chance I’m hoping to complete a 2012 deficit preview for next Wednesday. Other than that, posting will be light. Enjoy the holidays!!

12-20 USDD

Dec 20
0

Daily US Deficit For 12/18/2012

By | Daily Deficit
The US Daily Deficit for 12/18/2012 was $4.2B, reversing a 2 day run of $75B in surplus primarily related to corporate income taxes. Through 18 days, December 2012 is looking $47B better than last year, but adjusted for timing, we are really only about $17B better, primarily on strong corporate income tax receipts. Keep an eye on costs…they appear to be creeping up, and could wipe out some of the revenue gains by month end if the trend continues.

12-18 USDD