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copernicus

Jun 17
0

6/13/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit

I’m back…

06-13-2013 vacation deficits

Didn’t really miss a whole lot…the above chart shows the daily deficit for the six days I missed.

06-13-2013 USDD

Above is our standard chart for 6/13. Nothing is really in sync, but we have revenue up $12B for a 13% YOY increase. It looks impressive, but I wouldn’t put too much faith in that…yet. If it still looks like that at the end of this week after all the quarterly tax receipts are in…it will be an impressive number.

Costs are down $31B….just about all due to timing…adjusted for that, we are pretty much flat. And of course the deficit follows these…a $42B improvement….which should only get better with the rumored $60BFannie Mae payment….

We should see ~$50B or so of corporate taxes and $30B+ of tax deposits “not withheld” over the next week…so surpluses are on the way…what we are really interested in is the YOY changes. +12% is kind of a baseline…anything under this would be disappointing.

 

Jun 07
0

6/5/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Surplus for 6/5/2013 was $5.6B dropping the June 2013 deficit through 5 days to $15B. At this point in the month…we have timing issues galore, so the charts are crazy….I think we are going to have to get used to that this month.

06-05-2013 USDD

Jun 06
0

6/4/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for 6/4/2013 was $6.1B bringing the June 2013 deficit through 4 days to $20B. While this appears to be a $30B improvement over 2012…it’s not really….remember $30B of June outlays were pulled into May, so adjusted for that, we are more or less in line, but with only 2 business days in the books, it’s really too early to identify any trends.

06-04-2013 USDD

Looking ahead, the next week or so should be pretty low key… we’ll probably run a $10-$20B deficit over this time period. Then, around mid month, corporate taxes and taxes not withheld should start flowing in…probably bringing us back into surplus territory. Then…at some point, Fannie Mae is supposed to send a $60B special one time dividend, thanks to their decision to drop GAAP and convert to Enron Accepted Accounting Principles (EAAP)…..which are almost(but not quite) as shady as government accounting principles :).


Jun 05
0

6/1/2013 Daily US Cash Deficit

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash deficit for 6/1/2013 was $14B as strong revenues (due to it being a Monday and beginning of the month) of $27B were offset by $41B of outlays…including $24B for the first round of Social Security payments. No charts today…doesn’t really make sense this early.  I’ll just say that revenue does appear to be off to a strong start, but we really need at least a full 5 day week to really start comparing.