copernicus

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 1/27/2014 was $6.1B…pretty much in line with last year…Monday 1/28/2013 at $5.5B. this brings the January Surplus to $16B with 4 days remaining.

As it stands…Revenue is at $+15B….which we will likely see grow, perhaps as much as $10B due to the extra day remaining in Jan 2014 compared to 2013. Outlays, on the other hand are about $-24B….for now. The extra day will likely shave about $10B off of this…and payments due 2/1 that will be paid Friday 1/31 should push this the other way by a healthy margin, making January look worse, but February better.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty, but the January deficit looks like it will end up right around $20B…+/-$10B or so…. Quite coincidentally….I threw out $25B earlier this month as my wild A$$ guess….though it looks like I may have missed big on revenue and outlays….only to have them net out…. We’ll find out next Monday when the 1/31 report is released

The US Daily Cash Surplus…the 8th surplus in the last nine days, with the only exception being an $11M deficit on 1/15 came in at $5.4B, bringing the cash surplus to $10B for the month.

Another good day for revenues…adding another $+5B on the day versus last year, though a good chunk of that was a $3B TARP deposit…cash is cash right? Per the Daily TARP report…the balance of TARP Assets remaining is now down to $8B…

So two days ago….I was sitting here pondering about whether or not we would make it to +$17B for the month…equating to a moderate 6% YOY gain. Two days later, we are sitting at +$16B….with 6 days left…so without a doubt…January is looking pretty good on the revenue front perhaps with even +10% is striking distance. I’m no optimist, but there is no denying that the trend is looking good through 23 days of 2014…let’s just hope it still looks this good in 2 more days 🙂

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Wednesday 1/22/2014 was $12.5B as revenues surged far past my expectations…driven by taxes not withheld at $29.2B….compared to $18.5B a year ago…not bad for a one day haul!! From here, we would expect this source to taper off…ending the month well under $1B per day. On the current track, this category is on track for about +10% compared to my initial estimate of +5%. On the other hand, taxes withheld are currently sitting at only +1%, but seem on track to end up closer to +5%.

The 12.5B daily surplus pushes the monthly surplus to $8B…breaking to positive for the first time this month. If revenues stay strong it’s possible we stay here…but I suspect we will still end up with a small deficit thanks to strong outlays Friday 1/31 as a lot of February payments will get pulled forward…January’s loss…February’s gain.

Outlays were actually flat for a change. The final large SS payment is now in the books bringing the monthly total to $62.840B. Looking at the month over month, that would indicate a 5.2% growth rate…which could grow a little higher depending on what trickles in for the rest of the month. It’s not an outrageous number, but it is a bit higher than my forecast, which has a 4% growth rate baked in. The rate does generally jump around, so I wouldn’t read too much into one incomplete month, but it is something to keep an eye on. We know the wave of Boomer retirements has really just started…if we see this rate start to spike for a sustained period, it will tell us one of two things…the second wave of retirements (the first being caused by the “great” recession) may be upon us…or secondly…maybe the economy sucks and seniors are being forced to take SS because they can’t find jobs.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Tuesday 1/21/2014 was $11.8B…surpassing Tuesday 1/22/2013’s $10B surplus by $1.8B. Revenues were up $1.1B, outlays were down $0.7B.

We are still expecting a big revenue show tomorrow that could push the month in either direction, but for now…revenues have pulled to even.  Last January, revenues ended up at $289B…so for a 6% YOY gain we would need to get to $306B…a $17B gain. So…is a $17B gain in the next 8 business days possible? It appears to be quite achievable. First off, due to how we synced the days up…we get an extra day at the end…that should be good for ~$10B….meaning all we need is about $1B per day to get there. Nothing about that seems unrealistic…a big beat tomorrow could make it a cakewalk…a miss could make it a bit tougher.