copernicus

The US Daily Surplus for Friday 4/18/2014 was 13.1B pushing the April Surplus through 18 days to $39B.

Another OK day….but not impressive. Our YOY revenue is sitting at only +3%. Compare that to 2013 vs 2012…where through 18 days we were sitting on a +29% YOY revenue. Clearly….April 2014 is not looking like April 2013…where a 27% revenue surge set the stage for an impressive rest of year. Still…the truth is we don’t need another huge April to impress. As I discussed back then…stringing together 2 25%+ YOY gains in a row was always highly unlikely. Topping last year would be a small victory in itself, though obviously we’d prefer to do much better.

Just a few weeks ago I put forth a 13% YOY revenue gain in my $180B surplus forecast…..pretty much sticking with the +10% we’ve been seeing and adjusting up a bit for timing. I suppose that is still quite possible….but we’re going to have to see some progress quick…starting with Tuesday which should come in strong if patterns hold. Absent some late month surprises, we should have a pretty good idea how the month will end up by Wednesday…stay tuned.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Thursday 4/17/2014 was $12.2B bringing the April 2014 Surplus through 17 days to $26B.

Taxes not withheld were down again YOY…~$11B last year vs. $10B 4/17/2014. It’s not a big swing, but remember we are really looking for at least 10% growth from this category. On the other hand, taxes withheld were unusually strong for a Thursday just about bringing that category back to even YOY after being down a bit for most of the month.

Through 17 days, April is still looking a little better than 2013 but no real sign of a breakout…yet. There is still plenty of time for a nice upside swing, but we really need to see it soon, so all eyes on next Tuesday which looks like it could make or break the month.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Wednesday 4/16/2014 was $2.1B bringing the April 2014 surplus to $14B through 16 days.

Yesterday I mentioned that it was a good day with one lingering question…was the spike in taxes not withheld timing, or the start of a new surge? For now…the answer seems to be timing. To recap, 4/15/2013 had ~$5B of taxes not withheld compared to 4/15/2014 at ~$19B….an impressive, and unprecedented gain. However 4/16/2013 came in at $23B compared to 4/16/2014 at only $10B…giving up just about all of yesterday’s gain. Never fret…there is still plenty of time left for new surprises, but for now…eh….definitely some signs of weakness. For the month, revenues are up 7%. Not shabby by any stretch, but not as exciting as the +15% we were looking at yesterday.

No more reports until next week  on account of Easter. Tuesday is the next big day. I’m not versed enough in the tax deadlines to understand why, but the 4th Tuesday of April looks to have a revenue spike every year…Last year taxes not withheld on Tuesday 4/23/2013 came in at $47B…the highest day of the year, so the 2014 over under will be interesting if nothing else.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Tax Day, Tuesday 4/15/2014 was a very healthy $63.5B, wiping out the monthly deficit and bringing us to a $12B surplus at the halfway point.

For comparison, 4/15/2013 had a $48.9B surplus. Corporate taxes, the biggest haul of the day came in at $32.9B compared to $32.3B last year….so basically flat. Curiously, taxes not withheld came in at $19.2B compared to just $4.7B last year. Is this a sign of another blowout April, or just a timing issue? My gut says timing, but I flipped back all the way to 2008…the last time 4/15 was on a Tuesday, and see no precedent for such a large spike.

Typically, those who owe large tax bills write checks and drop them in the mail around 11:59PM 4/15…thus getting a 4/15 postal stamp and adding at least a few days before the check actually clears their account. Last year, 4/16 brought in $23B of taxes not withheld, and they continued to pour in at elevated levels for the rest of the month.

So tomorrow….if we see 24B+, we can probably assume it was not just a one off timing event. If, however we see it fall and the two days average out the same as last year, it was likely timing.

All together, we have to look at the day as a positive, with a small question mark to be resolved tomorrow. Through half a month, we have solid 5%+ gains across most of our major revenue categories with the exceptions being taxes not withheld at +65%…see note above, and withheld taxes down 4%, representing a $3.6B decrease. This is curious, but not necessarily alarming…yet. Outlays are mostly flat. There is still a lot of month left, but so far, so good.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 4/14/2014 was $18.6B pulling the April Deficit through 14 days to $51B. This deficit is unlikely to last much longer…if it isn’t wiped out tomorrow, Wednesday will…..that’s a good thing by the way 🙂

Now to the charts. Remember…no adjustments here. 4/14/2013 was a Sunday, so while we are even on business days, we do have some distortions. Outlays are still flat, but 2014 revenues have finally taken a clear lead. This of course was expected, but I won’t be too impressed until it sticks for at least a few more days.