copernicus

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Tuesday 4/29/2014 was $6.5B bringing the April 2014 Surplus through 29 days to $123B with one day remaining.

It was another solid day…Taxes not withheld still running strong at $11.5B vs $6.8B a year ago. Revenues are at +2%, outlays are flat….I’d expect revenue to gain a bit more tomorrow with it being a Wednesday vs last year 4/30 being a Tuesday….with typically weak revenues. Other than that…w probably have a pretty good idea where April 2014 is going to land….at around a $$130B Surplus…the highest since…wait for it….April 2008 at $188B.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 4/25/2014 was $4.3B bringing the April 2014 Surplus through 25 days to $104B with 3 business days remaining.

With all of the major day driven events behind us, I have reverted back to syncing on day of month…so we are comparing 25 days of April 2014 to 25 days of April 2013…each with 3 business days remaining. Outlays are flat…no surprises there. Revenues are up a little less than 2%. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see some small improvement from here, which could get us to maybe a $125-$130B surplus….it really depends on how quickly the taxes not withheld drop off. Today they came it at $9B…more or less in line with last year.

So with 3 days remaining, I’m looking primarily at 2 things…

1) Taxes withheld…after being up 8% YOY for Jan-march…they are now sitting at +2%…. Is this an anomaly, or the new norm? We’ll have to wait for May to find out.

2) Medicaid…running at +14% YOY through 3 months…this is where a good chunk of the Obamacare costs are being hidden….or at least absorbed :). At $21.3B, it is certainly poised to continue the trend, but this series fluctuates quite a bit daily, so we’ll just have to wait and see.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 4/23/2014 was $1.0B breaking a string of 8 consecutive surpluses totaling $169B as elevated revenues were overwhelmed by the 4th and final SS payment of the month. At $94B, the April 2014 surplus stands just about even with April 2013 with 5 business days left in the month.

It was a good day…Taxes not withheld were up about $2B YOY…from $15B to $17B….but we’re going to need more than that to end the month with a respectable gain. If I had to call it now, I’d expect moderate revenue gains…just say 2% or so, though I wouldn’t forecast that with a lot of certainty.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Tuesday 4/22/2014 was $39.1B as the expected taxes not withheld poured in totaling $46.2B for the day, just $1B shy of last year’s $47.2B. This brings the April 2014 Deficit to $95B through 22 days with 6 business days remaining.

And there you have it….perhaps the most interesting day of the year has come and gone…and is nearly a carbon copy of last year. Total cash revenues at $47.003B vs $47.025B last year. Outlays at $7.914B compared to $7.688B on Tuesday 4/23/2013.

And so….As we entered the day, April 2013 and April 2014 are still pretty much in line except for the extra business day for 2013 giving it an additional $10B of revenue and cost.

And with that…the likelihood of my forecasted $180B surplus for the month is quite diminished….a more realistic estimate is probably something more in line with last April’s $117B surplus. There were 3 primary variables in my revenue forecast.

1) Taxes withheld would be up 10%

2)Taxes not withheld would be up 10%

3) Tax refunds would be down marginally

Through 22 days…all of these assumptions are incorrect…all are around 0…plus or minus a few.

It’s been an interesting month, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we get a few more surprises over the remaining week. Still…it’s hard to call a day where you run a $39B surplus bad….and even if it’s flat with last April….that was one hell of a month at +27% YOY revenues…maybe matching it should be considered a win in itself?? Now…if May also comes in flat…it might be time to get worried, but for now, let’s just enjoy the fact that we have a $95B Surplus…

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 4/21/2014 was $16.7B bringing the April Surplus through 21 days to $56B.

I have decided to go back to aligning 2014 and 2013 based on days of the week so our charts are comparing April 2013 through Monday 4/22 to April 2014 through Monday 4/21. 2013 has an extra business day….giving it roughly an additional $10B of revenue and $10B of cost.

Pull that out and you have 2 months that are pretty much in sync….all tied up at a $56B surplus. Same goes for the day…pretty much in sync, though taxes not withheld were up $1.6B, mostly offset by higher refunds.

Tomorrow may make or break the month…last year Tuesday 4/22 pulled in $47.2B of taxes not withheld…. A large miss here could lead to a YOY decline….a large gain could kick off a late surge…..