copernicus

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 6/23/2014 was $15.9B bringing the June 2014 surplus through 23 days to 77B with five business days remaining.

Another good day for revenues gaining another $2B while outlays fall $1B YOY fo a$3B overall improvement. This is likely our last day of large taxes “not withheld” with $8.8 vs $7.9B a year ago. They will likely fall to a trickle by the end of the week.

Looking at the whole month…revenues stand at +6%…outlays at +5%. We’ll have to wait until month end to be certain, but it is looking like aside from the $6B of interest that was pushed from May into June…Medicaid and Medicare are going to be a big part of the increase in outlays. Medicaid at $21.3B has already surpassed last June’s full month at $21.1B and there are still 5 full days left, with a ~1B daily run rate, topping $25B looks likely, which would be an 18% YOY gain. Medicare also looks a little hot, running a few $B over last year

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 6/20/2014 was $0.0B….actually $38M, leaving the Surplus for the month virtually unchanged at $61B. Revenues were up about $1B….that’s good. Outlays were up about $2B…not so good.

Posting may be light this week, but I’ll try to get them out if I have time. So far, it looks like the theme of the month is…Revenues not quite as devastating as feared….outlays are curiously strong. Netted together…not much change.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 6/19/2014 was $2.3B bringing the June 2014 surplus through 19 days to $61B.

Revenues take a small $1B step back and outlays continue creeping up at +$0.7B. The last major unknown for the month is the GSE (Fannie/Freddie) dividends which are paid quarterly. Of course last June…those added up to $66B…including $50B of special dividends. We won’t see a number that high, but last quarter still had $17B…which is probably a decent estimate, but I have seen a few reports indicating it may be $3-4B lower than last quarter…I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 6/18/2014 was $0.6B, leaving the June 2014 Surplus at $64B through 18 days.

Revenues continue to be solid…up another $2B while outlays were up $1.5B. Revenues are currently at +6%, so with the extra business day, we are certainly within striking distance of +10% if we exclude last year’s Fannie Mae payments. This is a good turn of events…especially if it rolls into July.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Tuesday 6/17/2014 was $8.1B pushing the June surplus through 17 days to $64B.

It was another good day for revenues, which gain another ~$2B as another $1.1B of corporate taxes came in with withheld taxes gaining as well. Curiously, taxes not withheld was down from $12.3B a year ago (6/18/2013) to $11.8B, but this could just be timing. Recall that my initial forecast was for an $85B surplus….for now, I don’t see any reason to change that.