I stumbled across some old posts I thought were worthy of putting up top again…enjoy!!:
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The US Daily Cash Deficit for Tuesday 9/9/2014 was $4.3B bringing the September 2014 deficit through 9 days to $42B.
Through 9 days, revenues are up a solid 6%….not too shabby, though it should be noted that this month revenues are heavily weighted to the second half of the month. Still….with the extra day….through 9 days, getting close to +10% revenue looks feasible, though there is still a lot of uncertainty.
The US Daily Cash Deficit Surplus (**corrected 9/10) for Monday 9/8/2014 was $4.2B bringing the the September 2014 deficit through 8 days to $37B.
Revenues are up $1B on the day…outlays are up $1.5B…..
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 9/5/2014 was $0.6B bringing the September 2014 deficit through one week to $42B.
Revenues are looking solid through one week at about +5%. Outlays appear way up…but this is the ~$18B of Medicare that went out in late August in 2013, but early September in 2014. Other than that, we appear to be pretty much aligned. September, being a quarter end should post some solid revenue numbers reversing August’s huge deficit with a surplus….I’m guessing in the $60B range. Look for the revenue surge to start next Monday 9/15 with corporate taxes in the $50B range…followed by a steady flow of personal taxes through the end of the month.
The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 8/29/2014 was $17.5B bringing the August 2014 Deficit to $155B for the full month compared to $173B last year.
You may recall…I was forecasting a huge deficit for Friday, and I suppose $17.5B is a pretty big number, but I was looking for something in the $30-$35B range. In a typical month, a large Medicare payment of about $18B goes out early in the month, but I with the holiday on 9/1, I assumed it would be paid on the last day of August like it was last year. For whatever reason…it didn’t….I’m sure we will see it 9/2….
If you ignore this timing event, August 2013 and August 2014 were pretty much the same….with marginal revenues gains being cancelled out by an increase in outlays.