copernicus

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 9/17/2014 was $4.3B following 9/16’s $16.9B surplus, bringing the September 2014 surplus through 17 days to $43B.

As discussed in the last post, taxes not withheld have begun to flow in at elevated levels thanks to it being a quarter end month and the related tax deadlines. Currently taxes not withheld from paychecks are running at +12% YOY…a good showing, but not in line with corporate taxes which are still at +30%. Overall revenues are up 12%…if we stay at this level, it will be the first month at +10% since March. In other…perhaps related news….Stocks ended the day at record highs.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 9/15/2014 was $70.6B pushing September to surplus as expected….a total of $32B.

This turned out to be a phenomenal day for corporate taxes with $59B worth flowing in vs just $42B last year good for a $17B and 30% YOY gain. this is definitely going to blow up my revenue forecast, but it’s good news(for the deficit…not so much corporations) so i’ll take it. I suppose the bottom line is…corporations are making more money and paying more taxes.

Looking at the Year To Date (YTD)….calendar…not fiscal….cash corporate tax payments are up 15%…and corporate tax refunds are down 10%. Taxes withheld from paychecks are up 5%….taxes not withheld are up 4%. Total revenues are up 4.6%…..with the reduced Fannie/Freddie payments dragging down the total no doubt.

Bottom line….it was a pretty good day. With corporate taxes mostly behind us, we can focus on taxes not withheld which should be picking up to the $5-10B per day rate as early as tomorrow.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 9/12/2014 was $10.6B bringing the September 2014 deficit to $39B through 12 days.

2013 and 2014 are a bit un-synced at the moment thanks to 9/15 falling on a weekend last year, but should fall back in line with Monday’s report. There was nothing extraordinary in Friday’s report, and we saw $9.3B of corporate taxes, which is more or less in line with expectations. We should add another $40B+ to that over the next few days…pushing the month to a surplus….probably by tomorrows report.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 9/11/2014 was $0.7B bringing the September 2014 deficit to $50B through 11 days.

Chalk this us as a good day…revenues up $2B YOU and outlays down $1B. Revenues continue to look solid across the board, but it’s still too early to get excited.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 9/10/2014 was $7.6B bringing the September 2014 deficit through 10 days to $49B .

While it’s still early, we do see corporate taxes and quarterly tax deposits start to pick up, and YOY they look  pretty good….so far. Corporate taxes are at +23%…though this is off a tiny base of $1.6B. Taxes not withheld are up 13%. We should see another $100B+ from these two categories over the next 2 weeks…including ~$50B of corporate taxes Monday 9/15. which will probably be enough to push us to surplus for the month.