copernicus

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 9/25/2014 was $8.9B following Wednesday’s $11.4B deficit bringing the September 2014 surplus to $47B with three business days left in the month.

After dropping off for a few days, Medicaid is back on the map with $3.8B of payments for the day vs ~$1B normal burn rate. That puts them 18% over last September with 3 business days left to pad their stats. Revenues overall are still sitting at 10% with the only material event left on the calender being GSE dividends. It’s looking to be a pretty good month….with revenue gains more than compensating for Medicaid….now if we could just string another 60 or so of these together…

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Tuesday 9/23/2014 was $3.8B following Monday’s $17.1B surplus, pushing the September 2014 Surplus through 23 days to $67B.

Taxes not withheld continue to flow in and have picked up the pace a bit over last year bringing the YOY to +12% good for a $7B pickup so far. Total revenues sit at +11%, a $31B gain and counting. We have 5 business days remaining with the most interesting date being next Tuesday 9/30 where we should get a sizable GSE Dividend from Fannie/Freddie. The size should be interesting….last September, it was almost $15B combined. Last quarter, it was only about $10B. I don’t have a good handle of Fannie and Freddie’s seasonal variation, but another YOY miss would raise some eyebrows on what was starting to look like a reliable $50B+ annual source of cash for Uncle Sam….

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 9/19/2014 was $5.4B pushing the surplus back up to $46B through 19 days.

No big moves for the day…revenues were up $0.5B and outlays were down a hair. Taxes not withheld are still flowing in and will through midweek before falling off to their normal trickle. They currently stand at about +5% and have been trending down, but there is still time for a surprise or two.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 9/18/2014 was $2.7B bringing the September surplus through 18 days to $41B.

Taxes not withheld took a $1B step back which is curious, but they still hold a $2.7B 7.3% lead over September 2013, so it’s probably just an anomaly. There is still plenty of time left for it to go either way, but it’s not looking like it will match the +30% we are still seeing in corporate taxes.

In other news….I haven’t discussed Medicaid in a while. After running hot all year, including a 36% YOY increase in July, August took a breather posting only a 2% gain. 18 days into September 2014 it’s looking like it will be another bad month with a 25-30% gain if current trends hold. That pencils out to about $5B increase per month…$60B annualized….outpacing even social security, a program more than twice its size.