copernicus

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 12/15/2014 was $70b, wiping out the December deficit and bringing us to a $4B surplus at the midpoint.

It’s no surprise that revenues came flooding in, but corporate taxes are even better than expected. I had been thinking $+10B would be good, we are currently at $+$20B through 15 days as 2014 has $78B of corporate tax deposits vs $58B in 2013. Offsetting the upside in corporate taxes…withheld taxes are down 4% ($4B) which is curious but not worrying…yet. Altogether, revenues are now up $15B.

No real movemnet in outlays…now sitting at $+44B YOY….up another $1B over the last report.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 12/11/2014 was $2.6B bringing the December 2014 deficit through 11 days to $85B.

Revenues are sitting at $+3B YOY, up $1B from my last snapshot, though there are some hints that the incoming corporate taxes due 12/15 may be a good haul based on early (and immaterial) inflows. Outlays have gained $4B and now sit at +$43B YOY. My next update will likely be Tuesday, when we should have a pretty good idea of how corporate taxes came in…..$60B would be a middle of the road estimate. Add that to what is likely to be strong witheld taxes and we should come close to turning the current $85B deficit into a surplus over the next week or so.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 12/8/2014 was $4.7B bringing the December 2014 Deficit through 8 days to $65B

Not a lot of change since the last report, but revenues have taken a small step backwards. they now sit at just $+2B while outlays have grown to +$39B. This will be a slow week, but next week we’ll get a look at corporate taxes with the 12/15 DTS. Last December corporate taxes added up to $64B of cash receipts, so a +10% in this category could add $6B to the bottom line.

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Thursday 12/4/2014 was $6.2B bringing the December 2014 Deficit through 4 days to $66B.

As is typical, I have taken the liberty of adjusting by days of the week in an attempt to sync up 2014 and 2013 to give us a little bit more accurate picture of the YOY. This means that we are comparing December 2013 through Thursday 12/5/2014 to December 2014 through Thursday 12/4/2014. Both have 4 business days (Mon.-Thur.), so we are just about as synced up as we can get, though 2014 will get one additional business day at the end of the month which should boost YOY revenues….and outlays.

Through 4 days, December revenues look strong at $+4B…. an 10% early month lead. Outlays are up $37B, but most of that can be chalked up to timing…last December had a big slug of 12/1 outlays get pulled into November….

No real swings in the YTD…revenues have nudged up a bit to +5.3% and outlays are at +1.1%. This deep into the year, we are unlikely to see much change in those %

Looking forward to the rest of December…this is typically a good revenue month as are all quarter end months as we get some quarterly payments…corporate taxes in particular. Just for reference, November just came in at about $210B of cash revenue…..I’m expecting December to be in the $340-$360B range. April is the highest month of the year…posting $425B of cash revenues in 2014. While we have started the month with a pretty large deficit, revenues should start pouring in around the 15th and remain elevated….pushing us to a surplus by month end. I’m not feeling quite as lucky for this prediction, but after nailing November at $75B, hopefully you guys will cut me some slack because December is quite a bit trickier. I’m going to be an optimist and assume revenues come in at around +10% thanks to the extra day and the trend. However….GSE dividends are due this month and they aren’t looking so hot YOY. I saw a this article in the Washington Times that indicates the payment will be in the ballpark of $8B. This is up a bit from last quarter when they were only $5.6B, but down big from last December when they were $39B thanks to the well documented  Tax Asset Silliness… That was a one time shot, which will hurt the YOY, but it’s not really a surprise. Add it all up and I’ll put my SWAG at a $30B surplus for the month compared to last Decembers $54B on timing, GSE dividends, and otherwise strong revenues.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for 11/28/2014 was $4.4B bringing the November 2014 deficit for the full month to $75B…which curiously enough is exactly what I predicted here. I love it when I’m right lucky 🙂

Revenues ended up at $210B, besting 2013 by just $4B and 1.6%. That’s a little disappointing coming off 2 straight months in the ~+10% range, but we were down a business day, so it’s not too concerning, and a beat is still a beat.

Outlays were down huge at $-66B, but we can chalk that all up to timing….about $30B or so which we’ll see with the 12/1 DTS.

For the full year through 11 months, Revenues are sitting at +$145B, good for a 5.2% YOY improvement. That’s a damn good number….well except for the fact that we’re paying it 🙁 . Nonetheless, it’s definitely good for decreasing the deficit, and I’ll take +5% all day long….we should hope 2015 brings more of the same.

Outlays appear nearly flat at $+4B, but again, some $30B of this is timing that will drop back in with the 12/1 report. Adjust for that, and we’re at about +1%. Again….it’s a pretty good number….I’m just not sure how long it will last.

All together, 11 months in, 2014 is looking like another solid year and we will record our 5th straight year of deficit improvement ending up somewhere between $550B and $600B as December will most likely record a moderate surplus.