copernicus

The US Daily Cash Surplus for 4/24/2015 was $11.8B bringing the April Surplus with 4 business days remaining to $142B.

Revenue continues to pour in building 2015’s lead over 2014 to +10% and likely headed higher. This is actually really good news for the deficit…not so good for taxpayers wallets. For the year, we have revenues up 9%, outlays up 3%. My initial forecast was for a $155B surplus…With 4 days left, ~$170B looks possible, though it is highly dependent on how long taxes not withheld keep flowing in. 4/24, they were at $17B vs $9B a year ago. Historically these fall off a cliff and are down to about $1B by month end, so any change in this pattern could drive the surplus even higher.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Tuesday 4/21/2015 was $46.1B bringing the April 2015 surplus through 21 days to $112B.

It was a good day for revenues, with taxes not withheld coming in at $54B compared to last year at $46B. This more or less puts to bed any lingering doubts I had about April’s revenues. We are currently at +17B, good for +5%, and since we pick up an extra day of revenue (and expenses) at the end of the month, +10% is probably within reach, but it will depend on how quickly unwithheld tax deposits fall off from here. The peak was today at $54B, and will probably fall to $15-20B tomorrow, shrinking back under $1B by the end of the month.

Outlays look flat due to one less business day, but will likely by up +3% or so by the end of the month. Medicaid, as has become typical is leading the pack….it will probably be up over 10% YOY

Looking to the Annual YOY, we have revenues up ~7% and outlays up ~4%, leaving us with a $27B deficit improvement. Not great, but we’ll take it.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 4/17/2015 was $18.4B bringing the April 2015 surplus through 17 days to $47B.

We finally see some signs of life on the revenue side with nearly a $10B YOY gain on the day. This more or less alleviates the concerns of weakness I have had for the past few days making it much more likely it was primarily related to timing rather than weak revenues. We should have a much better idea by the end of the week either way.

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Thursday 4/16/2015 was $12.7B bringing the April 2015 Surplus through 16 days to $28B.

We likely still have some timing issues, but another day of flat revenues, leaving me a tad bit more concerned than I was yesterday,about the risk of disappointing revenues. My forecast optimistically assumed 8% growth (+$34B), yet here we are at the midpoint down 1%, meaning we need to hit about 17% YOY gains the rest of the way out. The catch up day at the end of the month makes that a little less daunting, but we definitely need to see some growth soon.  Next Tuesday should be a big day for revenue, so we should have a pretty good idea by my Wednesday report if this is just timing, or if my 8% revenue growth was simply a swing and a miss.

No surprises here….driven by $33B of corporate taxes and $23B of individual income taxes, Wednesday 4/15/2015 posted a $46.8B surplus, pushing April 2015 to a $16B surplus through 15 days.

Now, for starters, we are not completely in sync, as is practice around here, we are synced on day of the week comparing 2015 through Wednesday 4/15 to 2014 through Wednesday 4/16/2014.  So 2014 has an extra day, and given the huge taxes flowing in Mid April….this gives it a big advantage…likely at least $20B. Because of this timing issue, our chart shows revenues more or less flat at -$2B. Don’t panic yet….there is a lot of month left, and these timing issues should start washing out by the end of next week. There is still a lot of uncertainty, but if I had to guess I’d say we are still on track for 5%-8% growth…. however…. there are some areas for concern to watch out for.

First off, corporate tax deposits are more or less done for the month, and are tied up with last year at $42B.   Corporate Taxes are only ~10% of total expected revenues for the month, but it’s going to make it that much harder to post a good growth %. Second, unwithheld tax deposits look a little light so far, but it could just be timing. They came in at $7B 4/15, and will likely build up to next Tuesday at $40B+, before sliding back under $1B by the end of the month.  This is a crucial category…last April it brought in $192B of revenue, 45% of the total. If we have a miss here, the month it going to look pretty crappy.  On the other hand, withheld taxes are looking good, and tax refunds  are down, but it’s really going to come down to unwithheld taxes over the next 5-6 days. As always…stay tuned.