All Posts By

copernicus

Jun 19
0

US Daily Cash Deficit 6/17/2015

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 6/17/2015 was $4.5B bringing the June 2015 surplus through 17 days to $34B with 9 business days remaining.

2015-06-17 USDD

June Revenue sits at +3.7% over 2014, and while there is likely some beneficial timing for 2015, the month end Fannie/Freddie payments are likely to be well under last June’s $10B. more or less bringing us back to even. There is still a lot of month left, and for some reason we do generally see stronger YOY in the second half of the month, but we are clearly behind where I expected we would be at this point. Outlays are more or less right on target.

Jun 16
0

US Daily Cash Surplus 6/15/2015

By | Daily Deficit

The Us Daily Cash Surplus for Monday 6-15-2015 was $71B wiping away the June deficit and pushing us to a $22B surplus at the midway point.

2015-06-15B USDD

Corporate tax revenue were had a big day as expected coming in at $57B giving June 2015 a 10% YOY lead over 2014. Curiously, withheld taxes were down $7B vs Monday 6/16 last year…offsetting the gain in corporate taxes and holding the YOY to a mere 1.5% gain. If we get it back over the next few, we’d still be at around +5% on revenue for the month, and set to end up closer to +8% or so on the extra day. Next up are un-withheld taxes, which should start coming in at $5-10B per day for the rest of the week before trailing off by month end. It looks like we are going to have to wait at least a few more days for that clarity…stay tuned.

Jun 15
0

US Daily Cash Surplus 6/11/2015

By | Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Thursday 6/11/2015 was $1.6B bringing the June 2015 deficit through 11 days to $63B.

2015-06-11 USDD

Tax revenues should start flowing in over the next few days, including ~$50B of corporate taxes Monday which will likely push the deficit to surplus.  As it stands, revenues are up 4.5%…not too shabby, with outlays still being up big due to the timing issues discussed in the last post. Pull that out, and we are probably in our standard range of +1-3%. By the end of the week, we should have a much better feel for where revenue is headed, though revenues should remain elevated for the rest of the month.

Jun 02
0

May 2015 Cash Deficit

By | Commentary, Daily Deficit

The US Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 5/29/2015 was $2.4B bringing the May 2015 Cash Deficit to $104B for the month.

2015-05-29 USDD

 

Revenues:

Revenues were up nearly $10B good for a 4.5% YOY improvement. May 2015 had one less business day, so adding that in and we would have been between 6-7%…not as impressive as April’s +13.5%, but good enough.

Outlays:

Outlays were down $31B, but all of that is related to timing as in 2014 $30-40B of payments due 6/1 went out in May since 6/1 fell on a weekend. May’s gain will be June’s pain, expect it to start with a big hole

Deficit: On increased revenues and decreased outlays, the deficit was down $40B vs May 2014. Pulling out timing events, I’d guess we were more or less flat

YTD: We are now 5 months in, and revenue is up 9%. Outlays show flat, but adjusted for timing I’d put them at +3%. That leaves us with the deficit itself with a $103B YOY improvement.

June Outlook: My initial May deficit forecast was $100B, not far off from the $104B actual. June is a quarter close month, which means it should have fairly strong tax revenues. Last June posted a $78B surplus, but due to the timing discussed above, I am putting my initial June 2015 forecast at a $50B surplus. In this number is 8% YOY baseline revenue increase based on what we saw in May, plus an extra business day in 2015 over 2014. Offsetting that, I expect Fannie/Freddie dividends to continue their plunge, maybe coming in at $2-3B vs $10B a year ago. Outlays will be up big….including a 3% baseline plus normalized timing picking up in June the outlays that went out in late May in 2014.

D-Day:  We ended the month of May with $199B of cash, down from $275B to end April. I’d guess they also burned through another $30B of “Extrordinary Measures” (EM), bringing the total to $130B since they started in March out of an estimated $350B at their disposal. Last month I estimated the cash available for deficit spending was at $525B…as of the end of May I would lower that to $199B cash+$220B EM, so $419B. This puts default day in mid February-2016…unless of course the debt limit is raised, which we all know it will be.