The US Daily Cash surplus for Monday 3/31/2014 was $20.9B bringing the March 2014 Deficit to $25B for the full month…$10B over my initial $15B forecast, and a bit over my expectations…as late as a week ago, I wouldn’t have been surprised by a small surplus, but that simply didn’t materialize.
Still…..and this is no April fools joke…for the month revenues were up 21% and outlays were down 9%, though a good chunk of that was timing. No doubt about it, this was a great month, and 2014 through 3 months is off to a great start. If these trends continue, and they never do….we are headed for a sub $400B deficit….maybe sub $300B. I’ve reworked my forecasts, but have decided to hold off for a few more weeks to see what April looks like before I pull the trigger.
I do apologize for the light posting…real life seems to be getting in the way, but hopefully in a few weeks things will get back on track. I’ll try to follow up with some more March analysis, but I wanted to get this out there while it’s still news. Bottom line…great month, not as great as I thought it might be, but still pretty damn good….now on to April….large surpluses are a lock…the only question is how large…
