The US Daily Cash Deficit for Friday 3/21/2014 was $4.5B bringing the March 2014 deficit through 21 days to $26B for the month with six business days remaining.
No real movement since the last post. End of month’s can get a bit messy, but there is no reason at this time to move materially away from my original forecast of a $15B deficit for the month. Looking at the remaining days… odds are we’ll end up under that, perhaps even at a surplus if we end the month with strong revenues, but don’t look for a huge beat, even with some nice big checks from Fannie/Freddie headed our way 3/31.
Perhaps more interesting is the coming month of April. Typically the best month of the year thanks to 4/15 tax payments, last April posted a $117B surplus as revenues surged 27% YOY. If they continue surging, seeing a $150-$200b surplus next month seems likely assuming 8-10% growth….growth over that could spike the surplus even more.
