The US Daily Cash Surplus for Friday 4/25/2014 was $4.3B bringing the April 2014 Surplus through 25 days to $104B with 3 business days remaining.
With all of the major day driven events behind us, I have reverted back to syncing on day of month…so we are comparing 25 days of April 2014 to 25 days of April 2013…each with 3 business days remaining. Outlays are flat…no surprises there. Revenues are up a little less than 2%. I wouldn’t be too surprised to see some small improvement from here, which could get us to maybe a $125-$130B surplus….it really depends on how quickly the taxes not withheld drop off. Today they came it at $9B…more or less in line with last year.
So with 3 days remaining, I’m looking primarily at 2 things…
1) Taxes withheld…after being up 8% YOY for Jan-march…they are now sitting at +2%…. Is this an anomaly, or the new norm? We’ll have to wait for May to find out.
2) Medicaid…running at +14% YOY through 3 months…this is where a good chunk of the Obamacare costs are being hidden….or at least absorbed :). At $21.3B, it is certainly poised to continue the trend, but this series fluctuates quite a bit daily, so we’ll just have to wait and see.