The US Daily Cash Deficit for Tuesday 2/3/2015 was $33B bringing the February 2015 deficit through 3 days to $20B after Monday’s $10.6B surplus.
As is standard here, I have synced up 2015 and 2014 on day of the week so we are comparing 2015 through Tuesday 2/3 to 2014 through Tuesday 2/4. Both February 2014 and February 2015 start on a Monday(business day), end on a Friday, and have 19 business days, so we should be pretty well synced up for the whole month. Starting out, revenues are flat and outlays are up $6B…most of which is January’s interest payment that slipped from 1/31 to 2/2. However, refund season is clearly here with nearly $6B of refunds so far in addition to January’s $11B. 2014, however, didn’t kick off until Thursday 2/6/2014….but once it did it was pretty strong. The YOY delta in this account is likely to be the biggest driver this month, so we’ll pay close attention to it especially starting next week. For now, 2014 and 2015 are pretty much tied up….