US Daily Cash Deficit 2/12/2014

The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 2/12/2014 was $30.4B driven primarily by $22B of tax refunds…blowing away last year’s comparable at only $12B….and pushing 2014 refunds over 2013 by $7B…admittedly with a lot of time left.

2014-02-12 USDD

So far, not much about this month has been predictable, so I won’t try to read┬ámuch into one day, but if refunds continue at this pace….it’s going to wipe out a lot of revenue gains. In my model I have refunds forecasted to grow 2%….right now we’re at +14% despite a really slow start. Last year tax refunds bounced around before peaking Wednesday 2/27 at $14B and tapering off well into April.