The US Daily Cash Deficit for Wednesday 12/11/2013 was $8.6B bringing the December 2013 cash deficit through 11 days to $42B. Expect one more day of deficit Thursday….followed by ~$75B or so of Surplus between Friday and next Tuesday…pushing the entire month to surplus.
For now…2013 and 2012 are oddly…still all tied up both for outlays and revenues. Key metrics we’ll be looking at are of course revenues…. per my initial forecast…we are looking for a +$34B gain for the month….if we don’t make a significant dent in that by next week…it probably isn’t going to happen. On the outlays side, we really don’t expect much movement at all…typically we’d look for -1% to -2%ish….this month we have an extra day vs 2012….so maybe closer to flat? SS should also be interesting…I think the annual COLA adjustments go out with this month (but not sure why??..I would expect Jan)…we could hit $63B vs the 62B we just hit last month. (a typical month might see a $300-400M increase).