The US Daily Cash Deficit for Monday 11/17/2014 was $15.6B as strong revenues were offset by $33B of interest payments. No shock here, though the interest was about $2B over last November’s 11/15 payment of $31B. YOY, the public debt outstanding is up $634B, so moderate increases are to be expected. Last I checked, the effective rate of marginal debt was a little less than 2%….which pencils out to $12B per year in additional interest expense….chump change in the big picture.
Since our last report, revenues have gained about $6B YOY, and outlays have gained $3B, which net out to a $3B improvement. Revenues are currently sitting at +4%, but I think they will likely take a step back this week since last year on Wednesday 11/20 there was a $6B TARP Payment that bumped revenues up….I don’t expect it to repeat, and while $6B isn’t a huge number, it’s big enough to bump of back down to even for the month….for now anyway. There are 8 business days remaining with the most interesting aside from the last day of the month looking to be Wednesday 11/26, when we get the final large SS payment of the month, and a look at YOY and MOM growth. For those that remember them…I’m hoping to do another SS enrollment update, but I’m still waiting on the October report. There was a time when they were generally ready around the end of the month they covered, but now it seems like we have to wait another 3-4 weeks.